This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
Commodities Turn Up the Heat
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Commodities are making a fresh leg higher, and energy is leading the way.
Crude oil is back above our risk level around 76. And the energy-heavy CRB Index is at its highest level in more than seven years.
But it’s not just energy contracts that are working right now. We’re seeing strength across all areas of the commodity complex.
This broadening participation is evident in our equal-weight commodity index, which just hit new highs after consolidating for the past two quarters. [Read more…]
The Hall of Famers (01-14-2022)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Two weeks into 2022 and EEM (Emerging Markets) has a 500 basis point YTD lead over SPY (S&P 500). Emerging markets are up more than 2% and the S&P 500 is down more than 2%. Short-term charts can make this look like a significant shift in leadership. While it may turn into that, at this point it looks like a premature conclusion. My guess is that we are in the early stages of a shift away from the US and toward global equity market leadership, including emerging markets. But two weeks of outperformance after a decade of relative weakness is not much of a signal.
If we look at the history, all of the net gains in EEM over the past nearly two decades have come when the ratio between EEM and SPY has been above its 200-day average. The ratio is rising and the 200-day average is falling, so there is convergence. But there has not yet been a crossover. That’s the signal I want to see before getting too excited about the strength we are seeing from EEM.
It’s certainly something to watch, but we want to watch with a bit of perspective.
Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: The NBA gets it – when will investors?
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
It was Bucks vs Warriors in Milwaukee last night. Giannis vs Curry. A marquee January matchup for the NBA.
The game got away from Golden State early and they were down 48-24 with about 8 minutes to go in the first half. When the final buzzer sounded, it was a 118-99 Bucks win. Curry, who has been averaging 35 minutes per game this season, was only in for 29 last night. In fact, no starter on either team played more than 30 minutes.
Turns out a blowout in January is a great time for players (even the stars) to get some rest. It’s a long season and when the must-win playoff games come around, coaches are going to want their players as fresh as possible.
[PLUS] Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets
This is the video recording of the January 13th Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets
01/13/22 2:00 PM ET [Read more…]
Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Dad Was Right After All.
From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Don’t judge a book by its cover is sage advice I’m sure we’ve all heard from a parent, teacher or mentor at some point in our lives.
The message is clear. We’re not supposed to read a title or see a label and jump to conclusions. It’s always better to get inside and see what something’s all about before deciding to embrace or reject it.
We’re seeing this play out in the market in several ways right now.
The Short Report (01-13-2022)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.
Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.
We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.
The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too.
We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics.
Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we’re also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.
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