During our August Members-Only Conference Call we discussed a lot of the big-picture trends from around the world and in India, but we wanted to do a long post discussing what we’re seeing in the mid-cap space. In this post I’ll cover what we’re seeing in the index itself, as well as get into some of its most actionable components.
A “Sell In May & Go Away” Follow-Up
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
On May 1st we spoke about seasonality and why the traditional “Sell In May and Go Away talk is a great headline, but not a great investment strategy this year. While most think that seasonality data is useful to position ahead of what are typically weak or strong periods, we find that the real signal occurs when the market does not adhere to its historical patterns. Now that we’re a bit more than half way through the seasonally weak May-October period, we thought it’d be helpful to look at the market’s performance thus far and see what it could possibly mean for the rest of the year.
Dying Retail Sector Hits All-Time Highs
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
The Retail Sector ETF $XRT just made new all-time daily closing highs. I was going to write an extensive piece on how we got here and the lessons we can take away about knowing what we own and exercising professional skepticism when we hear gross generalizations like “retail is dying”, but I don’t think I even need to make it that complicated.
[Premium] Precious Metals Update
Friday we wrote about the US Dollar breaking out to 1-year highs and why it’s one of the most important charts we’re watching from an intermarket perspective. With that said, we always look at both sides of the story, and while the US Dollar breakout certainly adds to the bear case for Precious Metals, I want to use this post to explore all of the current bullish and bearish characteristics of the space.
[Premium] Chartbook Update Highlights
This weekend all of the Chartbooks on the site were updated, so this is a quick post to highlight some of the significant developments since they were last updated. In our last update summary we discussed the fresh breakouts in Financial Services, Consumer Goods, and IT, as well as the continued strength in large-caps relative to mid and small-caps. Today we’re going to check in on those themes and also highlight some new ones.
[Chart of The Week] Dollar Index Makes 1-Year Closing Highs
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
I know the US Dollar isn’t as sexy as Tesla’s Elon Musk tweeting market moving information every few hours or Apple hitting a trillion dollar market-cap, but I have been waiting all summer for a resolution of this range in the Dollar Index and it looks like we might be finally getting it. Whether this move is successful and the Dollar continues higher, or it’s a failed breakout that sends the Euro ripping, there will be significant cross-asset implications that are worth thinking about as this move develops.
[India Chart of The Week] Short Squeeze In Hindustan Construction
If you’ve been reading our blog for a while, you’re probably familiar with our process and how we identify reward/risk scenarios that are ridiculously skewed in our favor. With that said, the way we accomplish that doesn’t always look exactly the same. Sometimes we’re buying breakouts and trading with the trend, other times we’re trading against the trend for mean reversion, and other times it’s some combination of strategies.
[Premium] Fading The Mid and Small-Cap Bounce
This entire year we’ve been talking about under-performance in the mid-cap and small-cap segments of the market. To take advantage of that we’ve wanted to be shorting, or at least avoiding longs in, the weakest names in sectors like Public Sector Banks, Infrastructure, Metals, Media, Realty, etc. Last month many of our downside price targets were hit from a tactical perspective and we took a more neutral approach, waiting for better entries on the short side. Now that we’ve seen a multi-week bounce off the lows in the mid and small-cap indexes, we’re going to revisit the space for the best reward/risk setups on the short side.
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