Phil Pearlman and I had a nice little chat after the close on Friday. This week we focused more on longer-term weekly price charts and internals. Check it out:
Tags: $SPY $FEZ $FXI $ILF $TLT $ZB_F $TNX $SMH $SOX $EEM
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by JC
Phil Pearlman and I had a nice little chat after the close on Friday. This week we focused more on longer-term weekly price charts and internals. Check it out:
Tags: $SPY $FEZ $FXI $ILF $TLT $ZB_F $TNX $SMH $SOX $EEM
by JC
Volatility is definitely picking up and the daily ranges have been getting bigger. So we’re trying to stay as market neutral as we can for now until the market takes us to levels where we can lean on the longer or shorter side. Here’s what we’re looking at today:
Tags: $VNQ $XLV $XLP $XBI $ILF $EWW $TNX $EPU $GXG $ECH $EWZ $XLF $SMH $INTC $TLT $FEZ
by JC
Bull Market
Sectors are rotating….and I still think that’s what’s necessary:
Here are some of the charts we discussed. S&P500 levels:
Look at what the Dollar index did the last 2 days. This is a 30-minute chart of US Dollar Index Futures:
This is what the Long Europe/Short Latin America pair looks like right now:
And finally the sector rotation that we keep harping on. Notice the shift in mid-April when the underperformers turned higher and the leaders rolled over. These are year-to-date numbers relative to S&Ps:
Tags: $SPY $USDJPY $TLT $FEZ $ILF $SPX $XLB $XLI $XLV $XLU
by JC
New all-time high close for the S&P500 today. So in honor of this momentous occasion, Phil and I are joined by the man, the myth, the legend himself Mr. Ryan Detrick.
We discussed Consumer Stocks, Sentiment, Treasuries, UK breakout, Coal, Latin America and Europe. Check it out:
Source:
Hanging Out With Detrick & Pearlman
Tags: $EWU $SPY $EPHE $TLT ZB_F ZN_F $TNX $ILF $FEZ $KOL
by JC
I went down to the Nasdaq this morning to talk stocks, bonds and commodities on Business News Network. Check it out:
Source:
Technical Tuesday: A Take on the Trade (BNN)
Tags: $EWS $IDX $EIDO $EPHE $TLT $TNX $IEF TYX $NG_F $CL_F $UNG $USO
by JC
Phil and I did a quick video about the markets after the close Friday. We touched on S&Ps, the continued strength in US Treasuries, and a fresh breakout in Singapore. Check it out:
10-year US Treasury futures went out at new highs
10-year yields at new closing lows for the year
Singapore breaking out
JNJ is now up 17 weeks in a row. Reminded Phil of the Miami Dolphins in 1972 who went 17-0
Tags: $TNX $TLT $IEF $ZN_F $EWS $SPY $JNJ
by JC
US Treasury Bonds aren’t sexy. Trust me, I know. But neither were Staples and Healthcare for a long time right? And now, what’s hotter than a Johnson and Johnson, P&G, or a Coca-Cola? I almost can’t even say that with a straight face. But these are the names getting the attention these days, no question about it.
So when we think about US Treasury Bonds, we should at least give them a chance. With that said, let’s reflect for a minute and think about what just happened over the last 10 months. Last summer the world was ending, Greece was done, Eurozone was splitting up, Fiscal cliffs, debt ceilings, Elections….the media came up with every possible reason why we should sell stocks (see here). Well? We got a monster rally instead. Stocks did great. The more speculative the better actually, until just recently. But forget stocks for a minute. What about bonds? What did US Treasuries do during this 25% move in the S&P500 (30% for the Russell2000 and Mid-Cap 400)?
Bonds consolidated nicely. You couldn’t possibly have asked for better action out of this negatively correlated asset class. Here are two ETFs that I think tell the story well. Under market conditions where speculation ruled (in theory), the safe haven held its own. Here is a weekly bar chart of the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund $TLT. Call me crazy, but this looks to me like your standard falling wedge within an ongoing uptrend:
And here is the shorter duration equivalent. $IEF is the iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund. In this case, the upper and lower borders of the consolidation are parallel, forming more of a flag than a wedge, but the consequences are the same.
These look like two continuation patters to me. Obviously the breakouts in each of these have to hold. Last week we suggested that Bond yields were breaking down and this certainly ties in with that. I’m very impressed with the health in Treasury Bonds during this last leg of the US Stock Market rally. So I think to err on the bullish side of bonds right now is warranted. I keep hearing about this secular “Great Rotation” out of bonds and into stocks. I’m sure it gets clicks and sells newspapers. But as always, we’ll look to price action to help us determine what’s rotating and what isn’t.
I’ll do my best to circle back and reevaluate this market again on the blog in a couple of weeks. But right now, it’s hard not to be encouraged by the action in government bonds.
Tags: $ITF $TLT $TNX $ZN_F $ZB_F
by JC
This week was definitely a volatile one. You can tell people are starting to get a little bit more emotional about this market. Phil and I did a quick video about some of the things we’re seeing out there. We discussed the continued strength in dividend paying names, weakness in the resource space, money flowing into US Treasuries and some important S&P support levels.
Casual Friday today at Eagle Bay Capital Headquarters. That’s only allowed in bull markets!
Tags: $USDJPY $FXY $SPX $SPY $DIA $DJIA $TLT $TNX $ZN_F $XME $KOL