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No New Highs. So What?

June 16, 2024

On Friday you saw the highest weekly close for the S&P500 in history.

Do you know how many stocks on the entire NYSE closed at a new 52-week high?

12.

Meanwhile in ETF land, the Nasdaq100 $QQQ and S&P500 $SPY hit new all-time highs on Friday, but we also saw fresh 6-week lows for the NYSE Advance-Decline line. It was also a new 6-month low for the Nasdaq Advance-Decline line, for those keeping score at home.

Here's a chart of all the S&P Sectors on an equally-weighted basis over the past 15 weeks. Consumer Discretionary has been the worst. Utilities have been the best by far.

You'll notice that the Equally-weighted S&P500 and Nasdaq100 have made no progress or are down during this period.

Long Elon and Long Tesla

June 14, 2024

In 2019 Tesla was worth a tiny $30 Billion.

By 2021 Tesla was approaching a market cap of $1.3 Trillion.

The job of a CEO is to increase shareholder value.

Period.

No CEO in history made shareholders more money faster than Elon Musk.

It's just math.

The $3 Trillion Club Welcomes You

June 12, 2024

It's not a bad thing for America, Americans or the American Stock Market that the largest companies in the country are going up in price.

The best players are scoring a lot of points.

That's perfectly normal.

In fact, if you go back and study every bull market over the past 100 years, you'll notice that Technology is a leader in almost every single one of them.

Tech stocks doing well, and outperforming other sectors, is just a classic characteristic of a bull market.

Observations from Urgent Care

June 8, 2024

My son is perfectly fine.

But his face was bubbling up earlier this week after eating cashews.

I feel bad for him because cashews are delicious.

The Dr. gave him some Benadryl and some other stuff and he was just fine within the hour.

But we were hanging out at the urgent care for a while and I couldn't help myself but look around and notice all the nurse tchotchkes.

It was quite obvious that everything had a Mckesson label on it. There was Mckesson everywhere!

So it shouldn't be a surprise that the chart looks like this:

Let's Find The Next $100B Company

June 6, 2024

Years ago my friend Howard Lindzon calls me and says, "JC we need to find the next $100 Billion company".

And of course I respond with, "Hell yea we do!"

"But wait. How do we do that?"

He laughed and told me to get with my team of analysts and figure it out.

So we did.

We reversed engineered what it would take for a company to be able to scale to $100 Billion in market capitalization.

Bull Market Two-Year Anniversary

June 4, 2024

Next week marks the 2-year anniversary of this Bull Market for stocks.

As we've mentioned many times, the S&P500 didn't bottom out until October of 2022. But it was already a bull market at that point.

The bottom for the prior bear market was in June of 2022. That's when the majority of stocks bottomed.

By the time the S&P500 hit its final low in October, there weren't many stocks at all left going down. Most of them had already been making higher lows and higher highs.

Coming into this year, we made our list of the most important groups of stocks that were already exceeding the prior cycle's highs.

The thought process was that if these groups were above their late 2021-early 2022 highs, then any correction in stocks, whether through time or through price, would be just that - only a correction, but within the context of an ongoing bull market.

We called them our "Fab 5".

There Will Be Winners

June 3, 2024

When you look at Consumer Discretionary stocks as a group, you think "Wow this is the worst sector on the planet".

How can there be any winners coming out of here?

But there are. And there always will be.

First, look at the sector itself relative to the S&P500 going out last month at the lowest levels in over 10 years.

The market is rigged

June 1, 2024

How many times do these people tell you that the market is rigged?

Well, if you actually believe that then why wouldn't you just bet on the companies that profit most from the rigging?

I don't see the problem.

If you can't beat them, join them!

Here is the NYSE Broker Dealers Index making new all-time highs.

Software Is Ruining Everything

May 30, 2024

Software is supposed to be one of the leaders of the Nasdaq.

But this time around, it's one of the groups trying to drag it down.

Look at the new highs this year in the Nasdaq, but Software continuing to put in a series of lower highs, and possibly its first lower low this week.

Bonds Are Still Crashing

May 29, 2024

This historic bond market crash continues.

And to be fair, it might not seem like a "Crash" because bond market volatility is still relatively low.

So it's just been a slow painful grind lower.

But there's no evidence that it's over.

You can see the Japanese Yen continuing lower as well....

Consumer Hits 10-year Lows

May 25, 2024

One thing we know for sure is that stock prices go up and stock prices go down.

Sometimes they go up mostly in unison, and other times most of them trade lower together.

In most cases, however, some stocks are rising while other stocks are not, and possibly even falling.

We call these "Normal" markets.

Check out last week's Conference Call Video, Charts & Trades for all the details on how we're playing it.

You can see here in the chart below, for example, that with the S&P500 closing at new all-time highs this week, the Consumer is just not getting the memo.

In fact, Consumer Discretionary just went out at new lows relative to the S&P500.

The underperformance has not stopped. It's only gotten worse.