Imagine being one of these people who are lying to US citizens about falling interest rates?
Or worse, imagine being one of the poor victims who actually believed them?
Ouch.
The people lying to you include journalists across old media, a few economists that are somehow still employed, and even the President of the United States of America.
Or maybe the Biden didn't actually lie to you. It could have been the intern, who tells him what to say, that is the one behind the false information.
Either way, none of these people are here to help you. They're only here to help themselves. That's how this works.
So as investors, it's important for us to actually look to see what's happening, instead of blindly trusting some random source, even if that includes the President of the United States, who's been lying to you about falling interest rates all year.
Is the fact that he is up for reelection later this year further incentivizing these lies?
When investors are primarily on one side of a market, the pendulum swings to the other extreme.
One of my heroes John Roque said it best, "We're not in a reversion TO the mean business, we're in a reversion BEYOND the mean business".
In other words, from extremes in positioning, the market doesn't just go back to the average positioning. It tends to continue towards the other extreme.
This is the situation we currently find ourselves in as investors.
The bigger question for me is whether these new trends are here to stay, or if at some point the stock market reverts to those longer underlying uptrends that got us here.
Another question I have is which mining companies are going to lead their groups as metals continue to make new highs.
Here's a good way to view it. This is Gold breaking out of a decade+ long base to new all-time highs, resuming its secular uptrend from the 2000s.
You can now add the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the list of indexes that are DOWN for the year so far.
I've argued many times that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is the world's most important stock market index.
And while I'm not going to get into all the reasons again today, I'll just show you the chart of the S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average going back 60 years.
But today's chart of the day really shows this well, reiterating why it's so important to adapt to changing markets.
Here is the S&P500 with a line plotted below it. This line represents the percentage of stocks in the index that are in longer-term uptrends, but are NOT in short- to intermediate-term uptrends.