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The Most Bullish Thing That Can Happen

July 6, 2024

With the S&P500 and Nasdaq closing at new all-time highs this week, the questions remain:

Is this sustainable?

Does the rally have legs?

Can this bull market continue?

Before I get to what I think is the most bullish thing that can possibly happen to this market, I have one sector I'd like to focus on quickly.

This is the S&P Industrials Index, which historically has the highest positive correlation with the S&P500 of all the S&P sectors.

Is this just a consolidation within an ongoing uptrend in a leadership group? Or is this a double top that's about to come tumbling down?

You Buy Stocks In Bull Markets

July 6, 2024

Stocks needed a correction.

And they got it.

Most stocks haven't made much progress since the middle of Q1. It's now July. They've been through a much needed digestion of prior gains.

Remember how epic that rally in Q4 was last year? And then it spilled over into January and early February this year.

But then came the correction.

A good look here is the Equally-weighted Nasdaq100 going out at new all-time highs on Friday, after 4 months of no progress:

Sector Rotation Sector Rotation Sector Rotation

July 2, 2024

Last night was the big LIVE Event that I host at the beginning of every month.

There is no better way to start a new month, and in this case a new quarter, than going one by one and identifying the direction of primary trends for the world's most important stocks and assets.

Just for perspective, here are the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 Quarterly Candlesticks making new all-time highs, again.

As you can see, these are the types of things you tend to see in bull markets. You do NOT see them in bear markets.

Your 4-month Market Correction

July 1, 2024

This past February the market was running hot!

Too hot.

We saw some of the most bullish sentiment readings in years. And this sentiment came after a historic rally for equities throughout the 4th quarter last year that couldn't miss. Everything was working.

But things can't just go up forever. They need to rest eventually, and reset some of that excessive optimism.

That's exactly what happened.

Despite some of the growth indexes making new highs, a lot of the most important groups of stocks have done absolutely nothing since February.

Look at Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Industrials and Healthcare trading sideways to down this entire time:

Trump Warrants Pushing All-time Highs

June 28, 2024

The price of Biden's namesake memecoin Jeo Boden is down 45% overnight since the debates.

Not surprising to see this token pushing all-time lows.

Meanwhile, in Tradfi, the price of the Trump Media Warrants are pushing new all-time highs.

Notice how much stronger the Warrants have been compared to the common stock:

Big Day! Why Does It Matter To You?

June 27, 2024

This is a big deal for me.

Those of you who know me well already know.

Tomorrow is the last day of June. So do you know what that means????

NEW MONTHLY CHARTS!!!!

If you're new around here, I will just tell you that there is NOTHING, and I mean absolutely NOTHING, I do that adds more value to my approach than this process of taking a step back and reviewing a list of Monthly Charts.

It's so easy to get lost in the day to day noise of the markets.... What did the Dow do today? What did the Powell say? Who reported earnings this morning? etc etc...

I have found over the years that it is so important to just stop, take a deep breath, and focus on the direction of the primary trends.

The reason is because asset prices trend. They're not random. We know this. It's just a fact.

So if we know for a fact that asset prices trend, don't you think it would be advantageous to identify the direction of those trends?

As it turns out the answer is an overwhelming YES!

Here's a good example of the Nasdaq going back 25 years.

Ounces of Gold to Buy 1 Bitcoin

June 25, 2024

Just a few months ago in March, it took an investor 34 ounces of Gold in order to purchase 1 Bitcoin.

By last night, that number was all the way down to only 25 ounces of Gold necessary to buy 1 Bitcoin.

Here's what the ratio looks over time. In other words, here's how much "Real Gold" it costs to buy "Digital Gold":

Playing Defense In This Market

June 24, 2024

The U.S. Industrials sector represents one of the most important groups of stocks in the entire market.

So with new all-time highs in the S&P500 and Russell3000, then why are Industrials, who historically have the highest correlation with these indexes, not able to keep up?

Industrials are actually down over the past 3 months.

But the Aerospace & Defense stocks, that fall within the category of Industrials, continue to hit new all-time highs.

What's This Chart Telling Us?

June 22, 2024

This chart really stood out to me this week.

We just saw the Australian Dollar vs the Japanese Yen close at the highest levels since 2007.

So why investors care about the Aussie/Yen cross?

Because look how it trades with commodities...

Russell3000 All-time Highs

June 20, 2024

The Russell3000 just closed at back-to-back new all-time highs this week.

This Index represents approximately 98% of all investable assets in the U.S. equities market.

And it's currently at the highest price in its entire history:

Happy Fibonacci Day 6.18

June 18, 2024

Big day today!

6/18 represents the Golden Ratio on the calendar.

Math nerds all over the world are celebrating!

But how do we profit from this ratio?

Where does it fit into the market?

Here's a great example.

This is the Dow Jones Transportation Average retracing exactly 61.8% of the entire rally from the lows last Fall, and up to the highs this Spring.