It's a good thing this is a long weekend. Because if you're like me, and you actually count how many stocks are going up and making new highs, then it's going to take longer than ever to do it.
The list of stocks going up keeps getting longer and longer.
That's probably NOT because breadth is deteriorating.
In fact, the Advance-Decline line on the world's most important stock exchange just hit new all-time highs. So did the world's most important stock index.
All eyes on Technology today, with $NVDA reporting earnings later this afternoon.
But I'd like to add some different perspective than what you might here on twitter or perhaps on these basic cable networks that no one watches anymore.
There's a reason people keep coming to us for answers.
First of all, let's keep in mind where Technology even is relative to where it's been.
This underperformance we've seen from Large-cap Tech started as soon as it hit the March 2000 highs relative to the S&P500.
It took Technology over 24 years just to get back to where it was at the peak of the dot com bubble.
And that's where we sit today (they won't show you this chart on basic cable):
In bull markets, that actually happens quite often.
We just saw new all-time highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P500 (market-cap weighted), S&P500 (equally-weighted), NYSE Composite Index, NYSE Advance-Decline and so much more. Check that out here.
But it's not just a U.S. thing. Look at all the other countries around the world.
This table below shows all the ACWI markets and where their prices are relative to various moving averages - ranging from short-term (10-day) up to long-term (200-day).
Notice how all the developed markets are above all of their moving averages, no matter how short-term or long-term they are:
Nvidia, the largest of all of them by far, reports their earnings this Wednesday 8/28.
We're hosting a LIVE stream starting at 3:45PM ET Wednesday as we monitor the market's reaction to what is probably the most important earnings report of the quarter.
In fact, we think this earnings release is so important, that we put together a FREE Nvidia Earnings Preview to get you prepared for Wednesday's big event.
Again, to be clear, we're not so much interested in the numbers themselves (i.e. Revenues, EPS, etc), but it's actually how the market reacts to those earnings that we're most focused on.
Imagine waking up every day trying to make up reasons for why it's bearish when the Equally-weighted S&P500 is making new all-time highs?
There are people out there who are purposely going out of their way to blatantly lie to people about how historically bearish it is when market breadth is expanding, and more and more stocks are making new highs.
It's like a weird fetish or something. These people need help.
Here's what they're so angry about and why they think the market is about to fall apart:
The Equally-weighted S&P500 is on pace to close the week at a new all-time high.
Based on the early trading in U.S. Markets, and the strength we're seeing in equities around the world, this looks like it's going to happen by the end of today.
Think about it like this: Mathematically it cannot be only 7 stocks going up if the Equally-weighted S&P500 is making new all-time highs.
It's just math.
And this really just speaks to the broadening participation across the market.
Just last month we saw the most amount of stocks hitting new 52-week highs that we've seen in years - on both the Nasdaq AND on the NYSE.
We also so the most amount of stocks on the NYSE that were above their 200 day moving average than at any point this entire bull market.
You cannot tell me that things are getting worse, if mathematically things just keep getting better.
And I preface with all this because when you zoom out, these mega-cap leaders are still drivers of this market.
They're just not the only ones.
But Nvidia is an absolute beast. This thing is now valued at $3 Trillion.
If you're like me and you have a bullish long-term bias towards Bitcoin and other Crypto assets, then you're constantly looking for opportunities to get exposure.
But with equities in the middle of a bull market, we also don't want to be in something that isn't moving.
This is the time to make money. So we want to make sure we're in the things that can make us money NOW, not "one day hopefully in the future..."
Take a look at the price of Bitcoin still working on completing this multi-year base.
We use sentiment to help put the behavior of the stock market into context.
When looking at markets, it's easy to see what stocks are doing. All you have to do is look.
But what are people thinking? That's what we want to know.
When everyone is bullish, it's hard for stocks to go up in price at the same rate. When everyone turns bearish, that's historically a great time to be putting money to work.
Coming into August, sentiment was running hot. The VIX was at 10, the put/call ratio was muted, newsletter writers were giving us some of their most bullish readings of all-time, and our sentiment composite was as complacent as it's ever been.
Boy did that change quickly.
We just saw the largest week over week spike in bears among individual investors since 2022, just as this bull market was getting started.
I love it when a group of people dislike a stock for reasons that have nothing to do with the stock itself.
In some cases it's because they don't like the CEO, or they don't like the politics of the players involved, or they think the stock is some kind of fraud.
In the case of Palantir, you're getting all 3 of these.
We love it when a stock hitting new 52-week highs makes people sad.
That built-in short-squeeze scenario is just added fuel to the fire to send stocks much higher, much faster.
Here is PLTR hitting new multi-year highs this week: