US Treasury Bonds continue to be one of the best ways to underperform during bull markets.

Yesterday the Nasdaq100 closed at new ALL-TIME highs relative to US Treasuries.

In bull markets, the best stocks not only do well on an absolute basis, but they also outperform their alternatives.

Treasury Bonds are a good alternative to stocks, of course. Just not during raging bull markets:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What goes up must come down.

It’s an old commodity market maxim that never fails to deliver. The cattle, sugar, and OJ markets embodied this truth last year. 

But as the calendar flips to 2024, it’s time to track those markets that failed to launch in 2023.

Here are three of my favorites…

Coffee

Unlike other softs such as cocoa and sugar, coffee failed to produce monster gains last year. 

But it’s now attempting to carve out a multi-year double bottom:

This is the video recording of our January 2nd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’m not concerned with last year’s winners heading into 2024.

Winners have a miraculous way of taking care of themselves (i.e. cattle, sugar, cocoa.) 

Instead, my focus centers on those markets that failed to launch. Markets like this…

No, I’m not talking about Gold. But it certainly fits the bill.

I’m referring to wheat.

Wheat never produced an explosive rally this year – at least nothing like we saw in 2022. But that could all change in the coming six months.

Check out Chicago wheat futures carving out a potential double-bottom pattern:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Metals are dominating the commodity space.

The rotation between energy and base & industrial metals colors the commodity markets as we near 2024.

Crude oil has slipped through buyers' hands since interest rates peaked in October. That much is obvious… 

But don’t short crude oil and its distillates just because copper and gold are catching a bid…

Check out the commodity subgroup performance since the US 10-year yield $TNX peaked in the fall:

Energy has clearly cooled, while precious and base metals have led the pack.

This makes sense as rates fall. But markets don’t move in a straight line.

This is the video recording of the December 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Metals are beginning to shine.

Gold’s new all-time high has captivated the masses. But all that glitters isn’t gold.

In fact, base and industrial metals are also providing ample trading opportunities.

Check out ol’ Dr. Copper challenging near-term resistance:

A decisive close above 3.91 set the path of least resistance toward the year-to-date highs at approximately 4.25.

It’s difficult to imagine a more bullish scenario for global equities aside from a continued expansion in the new highs list.

As much as I enjoy trading futures, I can’t ignore the money flowing into stocks.

From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

Whenever we want to gauge animal spirits in the precious metals space, we resort to our trusty intermarket ratios.

Two weeks ago in our Gold report, we covered the notable bounce we were witnessing in the Silver/Gold ratio, pointing to brewing risk appetite within this space. And this week, we outlined a bullish trade in the iShares Silver ETF off the back of this recent momentum.

But when we take this relationship one step further, we see a similar situation in the relationship between Silver and Gold mining stocks.

Here's a long-term weekly chart of this ratio:

This is the video recording of our December 4th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

This is the video recording of the November 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Commodities are losing ground as money flows back into stocks and bonds in hopes of a Santa Claus rally.

Yet fresh strength in equities isn’t completely leaving commodities in the dust. In fact, numerous bullish developments are underway for raw materials.

Dr. Copper is working its way higher. Crude oil is refusing to throw in the towel despite increased selling pressure. And softs such as orange juice, cocoa, and sugar are flying toward fresh decade highs.

That doesn’t sound bearish to me, especially when considering new buying opportunities in the grain markets…

First, check out the stock-to-commodity ratio:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The tide is turning for commodities now that the dollar and rates are falling.

Crude oil is relinquishing its leadership role. Gold and silver are catching a bid. And copper is digging in at former support.

But it’s not only base and precious metals bouncing off critical levels…

Check out our Equal-weight Commodity Index refusing to roll over:

Our commodity index, comprised of an equally weighted basket of 33 commodities, is finding support at a shelf of former highs. This is the principle of polarity at its finest – former resistance turning into support.