Did you see Gold just close at the highest price in history?

This is something we've never ever seen before - Gold closing out a week above $2300/oz.

It's the highest valuation for Gold in its entire history.

This is what that looks like:

The most profitable part of a new market regime is how long it takes most investors to come around to it.

Humans are creatures of habit.

It's not easy to just shift an entire mindset, especially one that was over a decade in the making.

"I'm a Growth Investor"

"There is no reason to invest outside the United States"

"Stocks & Bonds. What are Commodities?"

"Why would I invest in Gold, when I can own more Tech?"

"The government will never let Crude Oil get to $200"

These are all things people say and actually believe.

It's taken a long time for people to convince themselves of these.

But over the years, I've learned (the hard way) that there is a time and a place for everything.

The bet we're making is that people will continue to believe all those things mentioned above, until it's too late.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Commodities are hot.

Even the most ardent tech investors can’t avert their gaze from Gold’s eye-catching new highs. 

If you find yourself unprepared, don’t be alarmed. We have a plan…

Buy base breakouts.

Check out coffee futures ripping above a shelf of former highs:

We often joke that catching base breakouts like this gets us out of bed in the morning. (It’s the best part of waking up.)   

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our April Monthly Strategy Session earlier this week. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

How I learned it more than a couple of decades ago was that there were 3 asset classes: Stocks, Bonds AND Commodities.

But a funny thing happened throughout the 2010s. Commodities did so poorly, particularly when you compare their performance to Stocks and Bonds, that investors completely forgot that Commodities were an asset class.

Many newer investors never even knew in the first place.

But yes folks, there are 3 asset classes. And that 3rd one that everyone conveniently forgot about is the one that is dominating returns this cycle.

Here is a ratio of Commodities to Bonds in a strong uptrend as everyone keeps telling me that interest rates are falling.

It's actually the exact opposite. Interest rates keep going up, as Commodities rip higher and bonds keep falling apart.

You're going to tell me this isn't an uptrend?

Everything started to change in February.

We were right here talking about it.

You saw the major shift in March for sure. It was obvious to everyone.

But the cracks actually started to show up in early February.

In fact, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq100 are still at the same levels they were in early February.

The Russell2000 and S&P600 Small-cap Indexes are both still below their December highs.

Apple just hit the lowest levels since October, making this one of the best bearish positions we put on this year, outside of the $LULU trade.

Both of these have worked out very well.

And I think there are more of these epic downtrends coming.

You didn't fall for those lies about falling interest rates did you?

At this point, it's 2024.

We know for a fact that Wall Street banks are not here to help you or tell you the truth. That's not the business they're in.

The Financial Media has never been in the business of telling you the truth, so that's nothing new.

But the fact that they've been telling you all year that interest rates are going lower is hilarious.

None of these groups of people are here to help you. They're only here to help themselves.

And that's fine. There's nothing wrong with a Bank trying to profit for their shareholders. Just like there's nothing wrong with a media business trying to profit for their respective parent companies.

Profits are good.

Just don't think for one second that they're going to put your needs ahead of theirs lol.

Everything changed in February.

You started to see the cracks in January, but the big changes in market dynamics really got going in early- to mid-February.

And then March came, when everyone else saw it.

Look at the Sector Performance last month, for example.

Energy stocks were up double digits.

Technology stocks were DOWN.

Consumer Discretionary stocks were DOWN.

This is the video recording of our April 1st Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

Gold just went out at a new all-time high. That's over $2250 for an ounce of Gold. The most ever.

And it shouldn't be that surprising really. Gold has already been making all-time highs priced in other currencies like Euro, Pounds, Yen and Rupee, among many others.

Now Gold is making new all-time highs priced in US Dollars as well.

Notice how Gold and Copper don't move in different directions for too long historically.

This isn't just a Gold thing. This is a metals thing.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Black Gold is breaking out!

Crude oil is flipping weeks of indecision into conviction following a hard retest that frustrated traders earlier this month. 

Let’s take a look…

Check out crude’s upside resolution to fresh five-month highs:

Yesterday marked the completion of a tight bull flag – a typical characteristic of an uptrend.

The path of least resistance points higher toward our 95 target. 

However, I would be remiss not to mention momentum. The 14-day RSI has yet to register an overbought reading above 70. 

In the early stages of my Wall Street career, it was cool being a Gold Bug.

All my heroes were Gold bugs.

I learned in the early 2000s that pricing assets in Gold helped put market trends into context.

The Dow/Gold ratio was the ultimate Gold Bug Chart at the time.

You can see the Dow/Gold ratio here plotted in black, compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Avg itself overlaid in green.