This is the video recording of our July 1st Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Our cotton and sugar trades are working. Coffee is raring to go.

And crude oil is pushing toward a solid first-half finish.

Beyond that, commodities are dribbling lower.

Let’s review an energy contract that broke out two months ago and has never looked back—Natty Gas!

Natural gas futures are carving out an eighteen-month base below last year’s high:

I outlined our bullish outlook in late April. Natty Gas ripped the following week, rallying more than a dollar in just six weeks.

Now, price is consolidating within a twenty-percent range (potential right shoulder):

Just a few months ago in March, it took an investor 34 ounces of Gold in order to purchase 1 Bitcoin.

By last night, that number was all the way down to only 25 ounces of Gold necessary to buy 1 Bitcoin.

Here's what the ratio looks over time. In other words, here's how much "Real Gold" it costs to buy "Digital Gold":

This chart really stood out to me this week.

We just saw the Australian Dollar vs the Japanese Yen close at the highest levels since 2007.

So why investors care about the Aussie/Yen cross?

Because look how it trades with commodities...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Cattle futures are defying gravity.

Unlike most commodities during this cycle (pick your favorite base metal or grain contract), cattle have yet to correct lower. 

Instead, they’re still hanging around new all-time highs.

Something has to give...

Check out the diamond top taking shape on the live cattle chart:

Diamond tops are a rare bearish reversal pattern. They’re so rare that I’m slow to draw their boundaries. 

But I was reassured when referencing Richard W. Schabacker’s Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits: “The real bible of technical analysis.”

He points out,

This is the video recording of the June 2024 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’m avoiding the US dollar and interest rate chopfest.

That includes interest rate-sensitive commodities like crude, copper, and gold.

So, let’s check in with a commodity group that walks to the beat of its own drum…

The New York City Softs: Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, and Sugar.

First up, Cocoa. 

I’m sure you’ve seen Cocoa’s 45-year base breakout to new all-time highs:

Cocoa futures have been the main attraction, showcasing a face-ripping rally reminiscent of the 1970s.

In the 70s, Cocoa experienced two 400-plus rallies, each spanning approximately two years trough-to-peak (December ‘71 to April ‘74 and June ‘75 to August ‘77).

Cocoa might have another explosive rally in the tank!

For now, it’s bouncing between two critical extension levels:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Copper Springs into Action… Buyers Dig Copper… Copper, F%$# Yeah!

Those are a few titles I spitballed last night. But the markets wouldn’t have it.

This morning, the overall theme of the metals space turned on its head, trashing my bullish bias.

To be clear, I still have a favorable outlook for base and precious metals over longer time frames…

Yet we’re all forced to navigate the near-term selling pressure. 

Earlier this week, Dr. Copper found support right where we would expect – a key retracement level:

This is the video recording of our June 3rd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Metal and mining stocks are hanging tough.

Sure, miners aren’t flashing an overwhelming number of new highs, but they’re also not registering an alarming number of new lows.

That’s impressive, especially considering Copper’s epic false start.

While many precious and base metal stocks consolidate, let’s review the next group of mining names before they rip…

Check out the Junior Uranium Miners ETF $URNJ versus the Uranium Miners ETF $URNM:

Despite the significant overlap between these two ETFs, I view a breakout in the URNJ-to-URNM ratio as a clear risk-on signal (much like the relative strength displayed by junior gold miners). 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Don’t let a few days of selling pressure fool you.

Despite intense gold, copper, and crude oil pullbacks, many commodity-related assets are flashing buy signals.

For instance…

The Global Carbon ETF $KRBN:

KRBN holds a basket of European and U.S. carbon allowance futures – also known as carbon credits. Companies use these credits to offset the costs of releasing greenhouse gases.

Interestingly, the similarities between the carbon allowances, copper versus gold, and silver versus gold charts are uncanny. All three are violating multi-year downtrend lines, suggesting bullish trend reversals and a risk-on market environment.

We like KRBN long above 35, targeting 56.

That’s it for today. We’ll be back with more next week.

Thanks for reading.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold did its part earlier in the spring, paving the way for the rest of the metals space.

Now, silver is posting fresh decade highs, uranium names are triggering buy signals, and Dr. Copper is slicing through overhead supply. 

Plus, increasing copper demand has caught the smart money offside.

Check out copper futures with the Commitment of Traders profile in the lower pane:

Fading commercial (smart money) positioning tends to produce pain. 

But even the strongest hands can find themselves on the wrong side of a trade. It happened to commercial hedgers back in 2020, and it’s happening again today.