Who loves a weaker Dollar the most?

Have you run the numbers?

If you take it back to when the internals of the US Dollar began to deteriorate, you'll quickly see that the correct answer is:

This is the video recording of our December 5th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

Today we're checking back on two recent trades from October -- coffee and orange juice.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Precious metals shine as the dollar drops.

It makes sense our bullish metal trades are working in this environment. But how are less dollar-sensitive contracts faring?

Let’s check back on two recent trades from October, coffee and orange juice.

First up is the orange juice futures contract:

OJ came within striking distance of our upside objective last month.

It’s now carving out a near-term top while posting a bearish momentum divergence – not the most bullish price action.

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

Today we're revisiting the prior cycle highs as crude, gasoline, and copper retest critical support.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

In late September, we highlighted the prior-cycle highs for the top commodity contracts.

The question was whether these levels would hold as support. So far, they have. But it’s two months later, and we’re asking the same question as those 2018 highs come into play again.

Let’s check back in on these critical levels of resistance turned support for clarity heading into year-end.

For crude oil futures, 76 is still our line in the sand:

It coincides with its 2018 highs, its July pivot highs from last year, and this year’s September pivot lows. Former resistance has turned into support.

Now, will this newfound support hold?

This is the video recording of the November 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’ve tried the paleo diet. 

I’ve even gone primal, cutting carbs while increasing fats for long periods of time. 

But I haven’t tried the new all-meat-all-the-time lifestyle. 

Whether you’re a full-on carnivore -- or even if you just enjoy a nice steak once in a while -- it’s time to hedge against rising beef costs using the futures markets.

Check out the chart of feeder cattle futures:

Feeder cattle represent weaned calves making their debut at the feed lots. They range from six to 10 months old and tend to weigh between 600 and 800 pounds.

While these young cows still have weight to put on, from the looks of the weekly chart, they’re planning to eat well this holiday season. 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The bulls are dropping the US dollar like it's hot – and risk assets worldwide love it! 

Few areas are enjoying the newfound dollar weakness quite like the metals space. It’s not just precious or base metals catching higher. It’s both.

So if you shelved those shiny rocks months ago, it’s time to pull them out and take a look.

Copper futures are up first:

Dr. Copper went out with a bang last week, posting its largest single-day return since 2009. We call these types of strong directional moves momentum thrusts. 

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our November Monthly Strategy Session Monday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.