Base Metals have been correcting off late and tearing through their support zones. Agricultural commodities on the other hand have displayed resilience during this market correction. While prices have moved lower, the inherent strength is still visible.

Today we're here to discuss a commodity that is trading at new multi-year highs: Jeera.

This is our ASC Research Q3 2022 Playbook.

Investors have a lot of questions right now. With sentiment and at some of the most pessimistic levels in history, what will it take for some of these trends to change in the second half of the year? I believe some major trends are already changing.

The Playbook takes a step back and looks at things from a more Structural perspective. If you're specifically looking for more tactical opportunities, you can check out this week's Live Mid-Month Conference Call.

Here's what we'll be discussing in our Q3 Playbook:

• Stocks (International & U.S.)
• U.S. Sectors & Industries
• Market Breadth & Sentiment
• Commodities
• Currencies
• Intermarket Analysis
• Cryptocurrencies
• New Trade Ideas
• Overall Strategy

This is the video recording of the July 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• 34 Straight Weeks Of More New Lows Than New Highs
• Strong Negative Correlation between Stocks & Dollars
• DJIA & DJTA holding short-term support so far
• S&P500 Remains Below overhead supply
• Small-caps & Financials testing significant support levels
• Europe's STOXX 600 back to 2000/2007 highs
• Apple hits new All-time Relative Highs
• US 10yr & 30yr Yields run into 2018 highs
• Breakevens & EW Commodities peaked months ago before Yields
• Still no expansion in the new 20 day highs or 63 highs lists
• Commercial Hedgers remain historically long Crude Oil
• Gold, Silver & Gold Miners break down to new 52-week lows
• 10yr Minus 3-mo Yield Curve breaks down to follow 2s-10s
• Bitcoin & Ethereum hold above former cycle peaks
• New Trade Ideas: Both Long & Short

From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Sellers are in the driver's seat when it comes to commodities these days.

Besides natural gas and livestock contracts, few commodities present buying opportunities that we like. In reality, most have either broken down or are on the verge of breaking down. 

As the latest bout of selling pressure shows little signs of easing, we’re likely to experience more damage in the coming days and weeks.

Copper, one of the most economically sensitive and widely followed commodities in the world, is a great example of recent weakness. It can’t stop falling.

Given the downside volatility raw materials have experienced since the start of the summer, many trends are stretched. We don’t want to be too bearish here. We want to let the dust settle.

With that said, it’s hard not to imagine where the bears will strike next.

And when we scroll through our charts, it looks like they have crude oil in their sights.

Let’s take a look.

The S&P 500 just had its worst first half in more than 50 years.

Based on CPI, if you’re in cash, you’re losing 8.5% a year.

This was the worst start to the Bond Market since 1842.

So what do you think gold is doing in that environment?

Down near new 52-week lows...

From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley  

Don’t let the numbers fool you.

Despite positive returns at the index level for Q2, commodities have been in full retreat for the past month or more. We broke the damage down in last week’s post.

However you want to slice it, commodities are under increased selling pressure. The strongest areas aren’t breaking out; they’re trying to hold support.

That’s simply how raw materials are performing in the current environment. Yet we’re still finding levels we want to trade against from the long side.

Believe it or not, one of these situations is popping up in one of our favorite energy contracts…

Natty gas!

Here’s a weekly continuation chart of natural gas futures:

We're going on 32 consecutive weeks of more stocks making new lows than new highs.

In bull markets you see the opposite.

Gold has not been in an uptrend in almost 2 years. I think one day it eventually breaks out. But what's the rush?

Let it break out!

I discussed all of this and more with Charles Payne on Fox Business yesterday.

Here's the full clip:

This is the video recording of our July 2nd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

We laid it out 2 weeks ago in our June mid-month conference call.

It was time to buy bonds.

And I think this simple chart really helps illustrate why.

We're looking at the 10yr Breakevens peaking months ago, along with our Equally-weighted Commodities Index also peaking around the same time.

All of this while Rates made one more new high:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

So far, 2022 has been a historic year. That theme intensified during the second quarter, which is now in the books.

The bond market is working on one of its worst years on record. The S&P 500 just posted its worst quarterly return since 1970 with the index down more than 16% from January through March.

Bitcoin finished the quarter with its second-worst return in its short history. And now the energy sector – the market’s leader this year – just posted its third-worst monthly return since the 1990s.

The operative words here are “worst” and “return.”

That’s 2022 in a nutshell. The bears are in complete control.

However, one area that has held up through all this is commodities. It was the best-performing asset class in 2021, and it’s the only one to close the first half of 2022 in the green.

Let’s note that the first quarter of 2022 was far different from the second. And before we go running to commodities for safety, let’s put the group’s recent performance in perspective.