We tend to think in US Dollars.

And this is for good reason, don't get me wrong.

The US Dollar is the world's dominant reserve currency.

But what if we treated Gold like another currency instead of a commodity?

It certainly acts more like a currency. Just look at the recent moves in Commodities, both up and down. Gold hasn't exactly followed along....

So if Gold wants to behave like a currency, maybe we should treat it like one.

Here's Gold priced in some very important currencies. In other words, this is what Gold looks like if you remove your US Dollar bias:

On Christmas or on any other day of the year, the goal is to sell things at higher prices than where we buy them.

And as great as Stocks have been performing, precious metals have done even better!

That relative strength is something we like to see in assets we own.

Now, when you zoom out in Gold, doesn't this time remind you of that time 20 years ago?

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Tuesday night we held our December Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each

Let’s get right into it!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Have you noticed commodities are breaking out?

No, not crude oil or copper. I’m talking about sugar, live cattle, and soybean meal.

Though these contracts rarely find themselves on the front page, their upside resolutions provide an important commodity-trading roadmap heading into 2023. 

Plus, their relative strength reveals insight into the underlying nature of the current market environment.

Check out commodity subgroup performances anchored from Sept. 26, when  the US Dollar Index $DXY peaked:

This is the video recording of the December 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

Today, we focus on metals and the differences between correcting though price versus time.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

We all learn how to fall – the sooner, the better.

As adults, we forget this is one of the first skills we learn early in life. For better or worse, my one-year-old reminds me daily.

He’s amazing. 

Yes, I’m one of those proud, doting fathers. But his coordination and acrobatics keep both of us out of the pediatric ER (and me, the doghouse). He pops right up whenever he hits the ground and keeps chasing his older brother.

Pure gold.

Since my mind is always lost in the charts, his agility and doggedness remind me of gold’s resilience during the past two years.

You often hear us refer to markets correcting through price or time. It’s an important concept that can reveal underlying strength. 

The dual-pane chart of copper and gold futures presents both:

Remember when they told you Gold was a hedge against inflation?

It wasn't.

Remember when they told you Gold was a safe haven asset?

It wasn't.

Remember all those times the Gold bugs made up fairy tales about future price appreciation for their rocks?

It never happened.

And so here we are. Well over a decade later, Gold prices are actually still down 6% from their 2011 highs. Silver is somehow still down over 50% from those highs.

Think about the opportunity cost of owning precious metals instead of pretty much anything else.

So. Is this time different?

Is this the time for Gold to finally shine?

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

Not only are commodities losing their leaders, but the leaders are losing their former 2018 highs. As bearish as this sounds, commodities still deserve the benefit of the doubt.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Not only are commodities losing their leaders, but the leaders are losing their former 2018 highs.

Heating oil futures just posted their lowest level since February. Meanwhile, gasoline and crude have printed fresh year-to-date lows, taking out their prior cycle highs.

Now what? 

Should we expect broad selling pressure to hit the commodity space?

Not so fast…

If you believe impending weakness awaits commodities in the coming weeks and months, this chart is for you: our energy index overlaid with our broad commodity index (both equal-weight):