There are a lot of distractions in the market, particularly when it comes to news events that drive a stock quickly in one direction or another.
In this post, we want to look at the example of Reliance and Future Retail Ltd. to reiterate why it's best to focus on process rather than outcome when it comes to markets.
Monday's downside action in India's stock market was a notable change from the slow grind higher we've experienced throughout August.
The news is this move was at least partially caused by some geopolitical risk and the SEBI margin requirement changes taking effect on September 1st.
Regardless of the reason for this selloff, we're going to take a look at prices and see how it's changed our short-term and long-term outlooks.
Before we get into yesterday's action, I want to address the title of this post. We are, in fact, in a Bull Market. One of the ways we measure that is by looking at the percentage of Nifty 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average, which is around 70% after falling to nearly zero in March.
This week we're looking at the Financials' sector, which is finally starting to pick up. As such, we've identified a new long setup with an attractive reward/risk.
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
Earlier this year we looked at the Nifty IT Sector and analyzed what it would take for it to finally break out to new all-time highs. Prices finally did and have since presented a lot of great opportunities on the long side for us.
In this post, we want to outline why there are similar conditions present in the Nifty FMCG Sector Index and how we're approaching it.
The Fixed Income, Commodity, and Currency markets are near and dear to my heart. Ever since I began learning Technical Analysis, I've always loved analyzing things that are "off the beaten path." This included everything from Interest Rates to Soybeans to the Norwegian Krone. Equities are great and all, but this is the stuff that gets me up in the morning.
In addition to the blog posts we do on the site, I've wanted to explore new ways to share that passion with you all and show why even if you're not investing in these markets directly, they're worth paying attention to.
That brings us to my weekly show, "What The FICC?"
In this weekly video series, I'll be highlighting the most important chart or theme from these three asset classes while doing my best to tie that analysis back to Equities through an intermarket signal or a trade idea.
Three weeks ago we turned more cautious on Gold and Silver as they hit our price objectives, but today we're back with a development which suggests they may be ready to start their next leg higher.
The first section of this article is going to be a repeat of what I wrote for US subscribers today and then we'll get into what the implications are for Metals in India.
A weak US Dollar has been a big theme of ours since it broke down a few months ago...and this week it's back in focus.
Let's take a look at the chart and discuss why it needs to be on your radar in the days/weeks ahead.
Sector rotation has been driving the major equity indices across the globe higher, but they've all got one sector that's holding them back.
Today we're looking at that sector, Financials, to outline why this week's action is important and how we're approaching this segment of the market.
First, let's start with the Nifty Financial Services Index in India, which comprises about a third of the overall market's weighting. Prices have been struggling with this resistance level near 11,300 and are now trying to break out above it to new recovery highs.
On a relative basis, the index is trying to hold above long-term support against the Nifty 100 and turn higher. Outperformance, or at least in-line performance from the market's largest sector would shift this from a major headwind to a major tailwind for stocks as an asset class.
Today we're updating the chart of USD/INR which we've been monitoring for the last few months and discussing the implications of this breakdown finally *potentially* confirming.