For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it’s a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?
Banks are the most important sector of the market so their performance, or lack thereof, gets our attention.
This week we're seeing some interesting headlines about industry heavyweights HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank.
Let's take a look at what's happening.
First, let's start with HDFC Bank, which continues to struggle with the 1,100 level of resistance on the daily and weekly chart. Notice how momentum also failed to reach overbought territory throughout its entire March-Present rally? Not exactly bullish action.
Click on chart to enlarge view.
And here are some of the headlines we're seeing about the stock this week. Sold...to you?
We continue to focus on stocks that are showing relative strength and absolute price momentum. This week we're looking sticking with a sector that continues to work, Pharma.
Last week we retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is our first edition, so let's jump right into it.
This time, we're looking for stocks displaying long-term trends of absolute momentum and relative strength...and we're buying them.
Let's get into the charts.
Here's Canadian national Railway going out at all-time highs last week. From a structural perspective, this signals the continuation of the stock's long-term uptrend and indicates a target up towards 160. If you want to keep your risk management tight, then 128 is the level, but if you want to give it more room then this thesis remains intact if prices are above 120.
In early May we outlined the "Five Bull Market Barometers" we're watching to identify the beginning of a new bull market in stocks.
If you haven't read our initial post linked above, we'd encourage you to check it out so you understand what the rationale behind these five indicators is.
Now, let's see where these indicators ended the week.
We haven't taken a look at the Marijuana sector in a while, so today I'm going to review where the sector stands on an absolute and relative basis...and which stocks we're buying (if any).
Normally I'd have a pun or two here, but I've decided to take the high road and focus solely on the charts this time.
First, let's start at the index level with the Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ). prices gapped below our price objective at 12.60 earlier in the year, consolidated for two months, and then gapped back above it...forming an "island reversal" bottom on the weekly chart.
Click on chart to enlarge view.
Since then, prices have successfully retested support multiple times, so it would appear the bias is higher towards 22 as long as we're above 12.60.