On this episode of the podcast, I sit down with Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research.
I've been a big fan of Ed's work for a long time, not to mention Ned Davis is one of my personal heroes.
The work they do over there has been inspiring to me throughout my entire career. So as you can imagine, it was so fun and such a pleasure to chat with Ed.
We talk about Market Breadth, Sector Trends, Momentum and Seasonality.
If you have any exposure whatsoever in the market, or even thinking about putting on exposure, then this is the episode for you!
It’s an important question, especially for those of us who maintain exposure to bonds.
And for those of us who don’t, it’s always good to know what’s going on in the fixed income space, as it’s often very valuable information.
Frankly, as investors, it’s irresponsible and negligent to not know what’s going on in this asset class.
It’s the largest market in the world!
And right now we’re seeing evidence of a shift in leadership toward High Yield Bonds $HYG.
We know it’s in our best interest to pay attention to this development so let’s look at a couple charts that suggest bond investors are reaching further out on the risk curve for a higher yield.
Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for various asset classes and categories, along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.
In our last report, we pounded the table on our position that markets are a total mess these days. Another theme we hit on was how many significant risk assets were trading at or below critical levels of overhead supply.
Stocks in the U.S. and around the world, Interest Rates both domestic and global, Commodities, Currencies and an infinite amount of Intermarket Relationships that help us identify trends across assets.
Price is what pays. Not just around here, but also for you reading this, as well as every other investor on the planet.
Nothing else is going to pay you.
So when it comes to "What is the best Technical Indicator?"
The answer is Price.
Now, in order to supplement our price analysis, we include things like Momentum and Breadth studies, Relative Strength, Sentiment, Seasonality, Volatility and a bunch of new tools and strategies that we continue to develop as markets evolve over time.
Sentiment can be a tricky one.
I think anyone who has been in markets for a while would agree.
The short answer is that there is NO single sentiment indicator that will tell you when to buy or sell stocks, or any other asset class for that matter.
Where Sentiment really stands out to me is when it is at a historic extreme, which by definition, is not very often.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
In today's post, we’ll discuss some of our favorite and most important intermarket ratios and see what they’re suggesting for markets and risk appetite around the globe.
One thing we found interesting when digging through these charts is that many of them look a lot like stocks do right now.
Sideways. Range-bound. Messy. But, within the context of underlying uptrends.
So these are basically just continuation patterns on shorter timeframes.
But, after consolidating for months and even quarters now, we are beginning to see some resolve higher… kind of like we’re seeing from stocks on an absolute basis.
Coincidence? Probably not.
We think this makes a lot of sense and bodes well for risk assets. Let’s take a look at some of these charts now.
Here’s one of the most important cross-asset ratios we track, and it’s a great example of exactly what we’re talking about.
Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
As investors, we have plenty of options.
We can express a bullish or bearish thesis in a variety of different asset classes - from stocks and commodities to bonds and even forex or crypto markets.
But in making the decision of which one of these areas to focus our attention, we must ask ourselves a critical question every now and then...
Where is the best place to allocate our capital?
Money flows to where it is treated best. And that’s always where we want our focus to be.
Remember, we’re here to make money, not fulfill our intellectual curiosities or express our values.
Lucky for us, determining where the alpha is as simple as performing a little intermarket analysis.
So let’s dive in and do just that.
Earlier this year, when the SPY/TLT ratio hit a key extension level, we knew we were at a logical place for stocks to take a break and bonds to get a shot at taking leadership.
We're going to flip the script a bit this week with our RPP Report. We typically don't publish a report during week's where we have a monthly conference call as JC covers our positioning and summarizes our key themes and views there.
But we didn't do one last week either because we had just published our Q3 Playbook which laid out our current position in a painfully detailed manner (it was 250 pages!).
In today's post, we're simply going to recap our "Key Themes For The Current Quarter" and update clients on some major developments that have taken place in the past few weeks.
We've got some important things to cover so let's get right to it!
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Earlier in the week, we held our July Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
It's a tale of two markets.
The weight of the evidence remains mixed across asset classes. We also continue to see more and more risk assets struggle at overhead supply. This is particularly true for equity and commodity markets.
From an intermarket perspective, most risk appetite ratios and risk-on relative trends are either moving lower or are rangebound.
Simply put, there's little in terms of directional edge for investors. The data remains split right down the middle -- and there are sound arguments for both the bull and bear case.
Although the information we're getting from the Bond Market is much more consistent these days. And what we're seeing is suggesting lower yields for longer.
