Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for various asset classes and categories, along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We consider this our state of the union address, as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes. Our ultimate goal is to discuss the most important themes and developments that are currently playing out in markets around the world.
There's been plenty of action these past few weeks. Let's kick things off with stocks and try to make sense of what we're seeing.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
You already know how we feel about the US Bond Market.
We like the short side when it comes to treasuries.
Lately, we’ve been keeping a close eye on the long end of the curve since it hasn’t kept pace with shorter-term yields. Though this is still the case, the 30-year yield has found support in recent weeks as rates continue to rise across the curve.
This should keep the bulls happy for now as an environment where long rates are making new lows is not supportive of higher prices for risk assets.
But that’s not what’s happening. We remain in a rising-rate environment and don’t see signs of that changing anytime soon. As long as this remains the case, we want to be selling bonds and betting on higher prices for risk assets.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
TIPS versus Treasuries is one of the most important charts we’re watching right now, as it's hitting its highest level since early 2013. Relative strength from TIPS hints that investors are positioning themselves for a sustained surge in inflation.
This makes sense given both the five- and 10-year breakeven inflation rates have reached their highest levels in more than a decade.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Last week, we touched on the weakness that’s been developing further out on the yield curve.
The long end simply hasn’t kept pace with shorter-term yields. This is understandable given the magnitude of the move in the 30-year since summer 2020. At some point, the shorter end of the curve needs to play catch up. And it’s done just that these past couple months.
Now it’s time to focus on longer-term rates, as further downside pressure will eventually put the current economic recovery into question.
Let’s put the recent action in rates into perspective as we head into year’s end.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
We’ve been pounding the table about rising rates for over a month now.
It’s hard not to when they're rising across the curve in both the US and abroad. Cyclical and value-oriented assets have increased in tandem, as energy and financials have become leadership groups.
We continue to see countries with heavy exposure to financials emerging from multi-decade bases. Just last month, the Euro Stoxx 600 made new all-time closing highs, while Italian equities reached their highest levels in 13 years.
But when we look further out on the curve, the long end hasn’t been keeping pace with shorter duration yields in recent weeks.
Taking a look at the 30-year beside the 10- and 5-year yields tells this story best.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Long-term interest rates have taken a hit this week, while the short end of the curve has continued higher. When we zoom out a bit, yields have been rising across the curve since this summer.
During the past few months, the 2-year yield has ticked higher by more than 30 basis points (bps), the 5-year has increased by almost 60 bps, and the 10-year has gained 40 bps. But when we look all the way out to the 30-year, it's only risen by roughly 20 basis points.
Rates are rallying across the board, Treasuries are trending lower, and bond market investors are favoring TIPS and higher-yielding securities.
Well, we definitely don’t want to be buying Treasury bonds.
In today’s post, we’re going to take a trip around the fixed-income market and discuss some US Treasury funds we can use as vehicles to express our thesis.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
It’s no secret.
As investors, we've been rewarded for buying stocks and commodities over bonds for more than a year now. And this will most likely remain the case, as more evidence suggests we’re in an environment that favors risk assets.
The copper/gold ratio hitting new seven-year highs, AUD/JPY testing its year-to-date highs, and cyclical stocks assuming leadership all point to an increasingly risk-on tone.
But for some of us, it’s not as simple as selling bonds and walking away. In some scenarios, we must have exposure to the bond market.
If that’s the case, we want to focus on the riskier areas of the market, just like we’re doing with other asset classes.
Let’s look at a few charts that direct our attention to the strongest areas of the bond market.
As we progress into Q3 of Fiscal Year 2021-2022, this playbook outlines our thoughts on every asset class and our plan to profit.
This playbook will cover our macro view, touching on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, and Rates, as well as outline our views on the major nifty indices and the sector/thematic indices.
We also cover individual stocks we want to be buying to take advantage of the themes discussed in the playbook.
