Are we all just going to assume that these consolidations in interest rates are about to resolve higher?
Seems like everyone around me considers this breakout to be foregone conclusion: [Read more…]
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by JC
Are we all just going to assume that these consolidations in interest rates are about to resolve higher?
Seems like everyone around me considers this breakout to be foregone conclusion: [Read more…]
This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
by Ian Culley
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.
We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
We like buying energy.
Who doesn’t?
Energy stocks are resolving higher and holding their breakouts, something few market areas can claim this quarter.
It makes sense.
Interest rates are rising across the curve as the US 10- and 30-year yields eclipse last year’s high.
Procyclical commodities and value-oriented stocks are responding as they tend to benefit the most as yields climb.
And when we add a dash of stock market rotation – bam!
Energy-related assets are making contact!
But while rates continue to rise and energy names are ripping, crude oil has not been able to break out…
by JC
The Regime change in the market is real.
It’s much different today than it was in the first half of the year.
And that’s perfectly normal. Anything else would actually be very unusual.
The strategies that worked in the first 6 months are not working well in this environment. But the strategies that did NOT work in the first half of the year are much better in the current market.
See: Regime Change
For example, high volatility strategies were mostly terrible in the first half of the year. That’s because we were in a low volatility environment. It was our low vol strategies that worked great for us.
So since the market is behaving differently now, then so are we.
Volatility is a little more elevated, so that means we’re getting paid to play. That wasn’t the case earlier this year.
Freeport McMoRan, for example, has some juicy premiums and is trading in a massive range.
Perfect: [Read more…]
by JC
These are the registration details for our LIVE Mid-month Conference Call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.
Our Live Call will be held on Wednesday August 23rd @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.
Here are the details for Wednesday night: [Read more…]
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Credit spreads are the canaries in the financial market coal mine.
They’ll peep at the first sign markets face serious risks.
With stocks entering a corrective phase, it makes sense to seek information from the biggest exchange in the world.
The bond market.
A reader recently reached out to me, asking about a trade I put on.
I’m paraphrasing, but the conversation went something like this:
Reader: “The implied volatility of the MSTR June 450 calls is 64.7%. That is far from cheap, no?”
Me: “The absolute number of implied volatility is meaningless to me. I’m paying attention to its relative value. I want to know where IV is now compared to where it’s been.”
Reader: “Wow. That amazes me. I always thought the implied volatility was an indication of how expensive an option was. Could you write an educational piece on this sometime please?”
Dear reader, your wish is my command.
Here’s the thing about options premiums (and implied volatility, or “IV,” which measures premiums) – they mean revert.
When IV spikes, it’s only a matter of time before it comes back down. And when IV is low, it’s likely that any sudden premium moves will be to the upside, not the downside.
Why is this true? [Read more…]