There have been no developments since last Monday, so today’s note will be a brief interim update.
[Crypto] Weekly Strategy Session – October 14, 2022
This is the video recording of our October 14, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.
Altcoins Crumble Ahead of the CPI
Earlier this week, we noted that our breadth metrics pointed to a weakening within the alts.
So Now It’s a “Debasement Hedge”
It’s no secret.
Crypto and legacy markets have traded together for some time now. Apart from the recent lack of volatility in the former, it’s all been one market.
We don’t need to overcomplicate this.
Just look at the ratio of the High Beta ETF $SPHB against the Low Volatility ETF $SPLV overlaid with Bitcoin since the onset of the pandemic. They look pretty similar, right?
Signs Point to a Spike in Volatility
Crypto markets will be forced into making a decision sooner rather than later. Bitcoin’s price stability just reached two-year highs.
Considering the mean-reverting nature of volatility, it’s only a matter of time before this tight range resolves.
Crypto: 2022 Q3 in Review
As we turn the page on another quarter in the crypto markets, we leave behind yet another period of aimless price action.
Bitcoin ended the period unchanged after giving back some of its slight gains earlier in the quarter. The leadership was outside Bitcoin, as Ethereum sported some modest gains.
Other names, like Polygon and Binance, are well above the lows achieved in the mass capitulation event in June. This came after Ethereum completed the transition from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake.
[Crypto] Weekly Strategy Session – October 7, 2022
This is the video recording of our October 7, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.
The FTX Indicator
From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts
One of our favorite anecdotal indicators is the classic magazine cover.
Journalists do a tremendous job of aggregating consumer and investor sentiment.
By the time these magazines and other features take time to plan, develop, and eventually publish their covers, they’re always going to be late to the party.
That time delay often presents a prime opportunity for investors.
Similarly, ETF providers also give us a wealth of sentiment information, particularly when it comes to ETF launches and de-listings.
ETF providers have a hilarious track record of launching funds at the complete worst time while de-listing them right before things get going.
A classic example is the coal ETF that got de-listed right before the epic bull market in coal stocks just began.
In crypto, we have yet another insightful indicator, one I like to call the “FTX indicator.”
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