Earlier this week, we noted that our breadth metrics pointed to a weakening within the alts.
Signs Point to a Spike in Volatility
Crypto markets will be forced into making a decision sooner rather than later. Bitcoin’s price stability just reached two-year highs.
Considering the mean-reverting nature of volatility, it’s only a matter of time before this tight range resolves.
Crypto: 2022 Q3 in Review
As we turn the page on another quarter in the crypto markets, we leave behind yet another period of aimless price action.
Bitcoin ended the period unchanged after giving back some of its slight gains earlier in the quarter. The leadership was outside Bitcoin, as Ethereum sported some modest gains.
Other names, like Polygon and Binance, are well above the lows achieved in the mass capitulation event in June. This came after Ethereum completed the transition from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake.
[Crypto] Weekly Strategy Session – October 7, 2022
This is the video recording of our October 7, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.
Is It Time To Buy Gold?
There’s been no denying the importance of the US dollar when it comes to evaluating risk appetite.
It’s been clear — the dollar has been the safe haven.
Not gold.
Not the yen.
Certainly not bonds.
The Case for a Countertrend Rally
Yesterday, we briefly addressed the precarious lack of volatility within crypto markets.
It’s piqued our curiosity to see crypto volatility dampen while risk markets have continued to sell off in recent weeks. This comes as equities lost their June lows, where downside volatility looked poised to follow through.
But, this week, risk appetite has shown a completely different face.
The S&P 500 is back above the lows, putting in a failed breakdown.
What’s more is that both Ethereum and Bitcoin have risen in conjunction with equities, supporting the case that the conditions for a countertrend rally have been set.
What’s Happening to Crypto’s Volatility?
It’s been impossible to ignore.
I’m sure you’ve noticed it.
Equity markets have been selling off hard, while Bitcoin and crypto have been flat.
The primary driver of Bitcoin and crypto price action, more generally, has been the tight trading correlation to legacy markets. In fact, the two have been trading tick-for-tick over the last year now.
So Bitcoin’s volatility in the face of the recent risk-off action in equity markets has our attention.
But is this a new trend? Is Bitcoin finally going to decouple here, or is this just a temporary bout spurred on by unique conditions?
[Crypto] Weekly Strategy Session – September 30, 2022
This is the video recording of our September 30, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.
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