From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Bond investors must feel like it’s their lucky day.
Long-duration bonds are reaching new multi-month highs!
It finally looks as if a tactical bounce is underway for these safe havens-turned-risk assets…
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Bond investors must feel like it’s their lucky day.
Long-duration bonds are reaching new multi-month highs!
It finally looks as if a tactical bounce is underway for these safe havens-turned-risk assets…
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
What a wild broad-market reversal yesterday!
Powell supposedly stated the obvious or blurted out what was on everyone’s mind. I don’t know. I haven’t watched the video or reviewed yesterday’s treasury auction.
And I won’t.
I’m more interested in the “what,” not the “why,” as the former has proven far more valuable for navigating markets.
Nevertheless, the message is clear: no one wants to buy bonds.
It makes sense to me…
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The market barely reacted Wednesday afternoon following Powell’s remarks, cooking up a big, fat nothing burger for investors.
Market participants took the decision to leave rates untouched in stride. After all, the pause in the hiking cycle was the expected outcome. Since investors already pegged the Fed, the valuable information hung on Powell’s words or forward guidance.
Yet judging by today’s performance, it appears the market just needed a little time to marinate.
Yesterday’s failed reaction has given way to a delayed response as long-duration bonds scream higher.
But before we get ahead of ourselves and rush out to buy the bond market bottom, let’s check the charts…
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
It’s beginning to feel an awful lot like 2022.
Rates and the dollar are on pause, bonds can’t stop falling, and the major equity indexes are violating critical support levels.
But the 2s10s spread raised serious questions this week as it hit fresh 52-week highs.
So, is the market environment changing?
Let’s find out…
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Investors navigate a market of stocks, not a “stock market.”
Equity indexes slide, and US treasuries collapse against a rapid rise in interest rates. Unfortunately for the bulls, the charts show no signs of an imminent change in these underlying trends.
That’s the environment, and there’s no use fighting it.
Have no fear: We can still lean into market areas that enjoy a rising rate environment, mainly energy.
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Borrowing costs are increasing, and US Treasuries are tanking – again.
Everyone knows it. Even my therapist commented on interest rates and the “terrible” economy.
The 30-year T-bond has hit our initial target. And the 10-year is within striking distance.
So much for limited downside risk for the bond market. Perhaps the call for a 5.25 print on the 10-year yield by Christmas wasn’t aggressive at all.
But elevated yields aren’t the problem…
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Stocks and bonds look vulnerable right now.
US T-bonds are sliding to fresh decade lows. The S&P 500 completed a three-month top last week. And the Nasdaq 100 is on the verge of doing the same.
Those summer highs are receding into the collective memory bank, replaced by new lows and growing unease. Sellers are out in full force.
But instead of allowing the near-term selling pressure and overall choppy conditions to throw us off balance, let’s focus on the one underlying trend tying this market together…
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Searching for trending markets?
Look no further than US treasury bonds!
Bonds across the curve are skidding to fresh contract lows as interest rates have a one-track mind…