Lots of volatility today.
We dipped down to $SPY‘s 21-day moving average at 386 and bounced, which was nice.
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
Lots of volatility today.
We dipped down to $SPY‘s 21-day moving average at 386 and bounced, which was nice.
by JC
First Santa Claus showed up for his rally.
Now the “First 5 Days” of the year were up (+1.37%).
That’s 2 for 2 so far in the January Trifecta.
So now what’s next?
The January Barometer is the last leg of the early year triple crown.
“As January goes, so goes the rest of the year”. According to my handy Stock Trader’s Almanac, the S&P500 has an 83.3% hit rate for the full year when January is in the green.
So with more and more positive signs for stocks, it really shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.
The trend for most stocks has been up and to the right. That was a strong back half of 2022 and a very strong 4th quarter.
And not just in the U.S., but we’re seeing breadth expansion internationally.
The weaker Dollar has certainly helped.
And while our Neutral approach for the S&P500 remains intact, underneath the surface things look so much better.
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
This morning, $SPY is around the 386 level, which is right at the 21-day moving average.
We have Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaking early this morning, so the market might be whippy.
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.
Welcome to Under the Hood, where we’ll cover all the action for the week ended January 6, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.
Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’s a lot of overlap.
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.
And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.
Then we flip through our list of stocks flashing unusual activity and pick the best setups using many of the same technical filters we do for our other scans.
And, just like that, we’ll follow the money flow and fatten our own pockets along with some of the world’s most powerful financial institutions.
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
Overall, that was a nice move in the market today.
As the day went on, though, the indices did pull in.
No doubt Gold Bugs have been enjoying the price action in gold instruments recently. It has been a profitable few months to be long just about anything shiny — even silver!
The All Star Charts research team published a continued bullish piece on the sector today.
Today’s options trade is a conservative bet on a continuation of this pattern. Let’s get right to it. [Read more…]
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Have you noticed precious metals printing fresh highs?
Last week, gold posted new multi-month highs. So did silver and platinum, hitting their highest levels since the spring of 2022.
Not a bad start to 2023 for these shiny rocks. And it gets better!
Gold broke out to new all-time highs relative to bonds last week. The yellow metal is not only showing strength on an absolute basis – it’s also outperforming its alternatives.
These are classic bull market characteristics and two critical pieces of evidence suggesting gold is in the early stages of a new structural uptrend.
If gold is on its way to new all-time highs, gold mining stocks will be participating.
And it just so happens they are… [Read more…]