What a day…
$SPY came close to the 415 level I mentioned this morning and then traded below 410.
The recovery was quick due to tech bouncing.
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
What a day…
$SPY came close to the 415 level I mentioned this morning and then traded below 410.
The recovery was quick due to tech bouncing.
[9/7: updated stop to 180. We’re already #FreeRiding, so whatever we sell for is pure profit!]
It’s time for the small caps to make a stand. The time is now. If they don’t, it could be ‘goodnight’ for a long time.
JC posted earlier this week about the Russell 200 index and had this to say:
We’re back to a key level of interest for Small-caps on an absolute basis. And we’re back down to historic levels relative to Large-caps. The chart tells a very powerful story.
I’m a buyer down here.
If the Russell2000 is above last Summer’s lows, I will be long the $IWM ETF. I also think there will be plenty of opportunities this summer in small-cap stocks.
We talked about $IWM internally this morning and I suggested a good, levered way to play this thesis while honoring a nearby risk management level that will get us out of the trade without much pain if we’re wrong.
But first, here’s the chart of $IWM: [Read more…]
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
CPI data for April will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
I’ll hold off on ideas until I see how the market reacts.
I make quick decisions.
Is that because I’m a trader? Or am I a trader because I make quick decisions?
Over time, I think I’ve come to the conclusion that being a trader has instilled in me a knack and preference for quick decision-making. I wasn’t always like this. 25 years of trading has taught me to work with only 75% of the information I might want, and that is good enough to take action.
The phrase “invest, then investigate,” as Stanley Druckenmiller said, comes to mind.
Outside of trading, this can also affect my day-to-day decision-making. I think it frustrates my wife when I make decisions so quickly. In her mind, she probably thinks I’m being irrational, emotional, or acting on impulse. She, in contrast, is very deliberate. Cautious. Analyzes every detail…
In my mind, I do take my time. I quietly gather information as it comes to me until I feel I’m about 75% of the way there. I’m exercising the same muscles used when evaluating risk vs. reward in my trades. If/when the potential reward is significantly higher than the risk (or significantly more likely to work out favorably versus the risk of “loss”), I strike confidently with little to no delay.
If I’m not finding opportunities to exercise these skills outside of trading, I think it’s important to do so. [Read more…]
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
The market was in a standstill today, awaiting the CPI print on Wednesday.
The indices held on.
Tomorrow might give a clearer picture near term.
by Ian Culley
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Dollar bulls hold the line.
The US Dollar Index $DXY is clinging to the 100 level, refusing to let go despite new 52-week highs for the British pound and a steady rise in the euro.
I’ve laid out numerous ways to play the dollar in recent months and what will confirm a DXY breakdown. None of that has changed.
But one chart caught my eye.
I was struck over the weekend by the resemblance between the commercial position in gold and DXY.
Check it out…
by JC
The weakness in Small-caps has been well documented by now.
Look at the performance since the beginning of 2022.
While the Dow, S&P500 and other major indexes are pushing up near 52-week highs, the Russell2000 is down near 52-week lows. [Read more…]
by David
From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff
$QQQ hit a fresh high yesterday, and this morning we’re pulling back.
We could be in a standstill until tomorrow’s CPI data.