I found a stock where earnings have come and gone with little impact upon the overall trend, volatility collapsed (predictably), and now the only question left to ask is: when does the Santa Rally begin? [Read more…]
Playing for a Face Ripper
Oh boy. I love when my boy JC gets fired up on an idea.
In a recent piece on copper and emerging markets, here’s JC:
Have you noticed that with Tech and Software and other areas grinding sideways or lower, we’ve seen a consistent bid in Emerging Markets? …I really think the squeeze is on.
He was a little bit more, um, verbose in an email header sending this piece to his subscribers that read:
Emerging Market Shorts Will Get Their Faces Ripped Off
LOL.
Well, I’m game. Let’s do this. [Read more…]
[Options Premium] Time For a Big Move to Consolidate?
One of our bigger directional wins this summer/fall is showing signs of taking a breather, but traders with a memory are still keeping a bid under options prices. This is setting up the potential for a nice “income trade.” When volatility is high (and therefore options premiums are juicy), and my bet is some sideways action in the near-term, these are the ideal situations to employ delta-neutral credit spreads. [Read more…]
[Options Premium] Targeting a Hundy Roll
The S&P 500 is back near highs. Call me crazy, but bullish setups in this environment with low volatility in the options get my antennae up for my favorite bullish strategy — the simple long call. (Keep it simple, slugger!) [Read more…]
[Options] Using Vertical Spreads to Manage Long Call Positions, Part 2. #BallersOnly
Warning: This aggressive strategy is only for those who are comfortable with risk and want to Bro Down 😉
In a previous post, I discussed using Vertical Spreads to roll long in-the-money calls up to protect profits while not giving up the dream of higher prices. Any time I’m holding long calls that are way in-the-money, this is a viable option to help me take money off the table — freeing it up to be redeployed elsewhere — but still leaves me a chance to participate if the stock continues moving higher (in the off-chance I didn’t perfectly call the top /sarcasm).
I promised an aggressive cousin to this strategy and here it goes… [Read more…]
[Options Premium] Bullish Low Vol Setup into New All Time Highs
Sifting through all the trade ideas from the latest All Star Charts Quarterly Playbook, I happened upon a stock that is still several weeks away from earnings, is just a touch below all time highs, is trading at its lowest volatility of the year, and has a clearly defined risk management level. As you can imagine, this is pretty damn near the perfect set up for my favorite options play… [Read more…]
Good Buy or Goodbye?
Earlier in the week, JC & I were chatting online about some possible trade opportunities, and we had the following riff on Microsoft $MSFT:
JC: Hey, $MSFT long straddles.Sean: You in? or are you asking if it’s a good idea?JC: I think it’s tight. It either breaks out and rips, or just get absolutely destroyed.Sean: Yeah. Vol is a little higher than I’d prefer for that trade. But if you think a move is imminent soon, I don’t hate it.JC: I think it breaks out. But like $XLK in October, if it doesn’t it’s over. It’s either a “good buy” or a “goodbye.”Sean: A couple more days of sideways action might lower the vol a little more, which would make me happy 🙂
Fast forward to today and $MSFT volatility has come in a smidgen.
The fact is, $MSFT has been in a $10 range since early June. I’d share a chart with you, but you’d be bored as the range has tightened even more in recent weeks into basically an $8 dollar range. To me, especially in this tape, $MSFT is beginning to look like a coiled spring that can pop in either direction. It just needs a catalyst. That catalyst might be coming on October 23rd when it announces its next earnings report. Or it could be something external in the ongoing Tariffs nonsense or some other clown show move out of Washington.
At the end of the day, the reason won’t matter. But any breakout from this range is likely to be met with some significant range expansion. [Read more…]
[Options Premium] A New Wrinkle on a Familiar Shiny Play
A funny thing about Gold is, people who have any kind of opinion on it are either EXTREMELY bullish, or EXTREMELY bearish. There tends not to be any middle ground. No surprise it is such a politicized instrument.
Well, I don’t care about any of that. What I do care about is volatility priced into options in this space continues to be pretty juicy at the moment while prices of many Gold underlyings appear to be stuck in a sideways holding pattern. (You won’t hear any talking head loudly yell on CNBC: “I THINK GOLD GOES SIDEWAYS!” LOL).
And the boys at ASC agree with me, having published a neutral opinion on it in their recently published ASC 4th Quarter Playbook. So let’s get into the play that makes most sense from here. [Read more…]
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