If you joined JC and the guys on our live twitter spaces session today, towards the end you heard me venting my current frustration in finding good opportunities to make directional bets in either direction right now. It's tough sticking our neck out here.
But of course, as options traders, we are not limited to just directional bets. We can attempt to pull profits from sideways markets as well. And when volatility is still elevated in most areas, there are plenty of places to look to sell premium. And the best place to do that is in an instrument that we feel is likely to continue trading in a sideways range for a period of time.
Today's idea is one such ETF that has been mired in a nice juicy range for nearly a year now.
From a directional standpoint, there currently aren't any stock ideas on the board that are getting me excited to get involved in either direction. Bear markets can do that.
However, from an options premium selling point of view, there are some good opportunities out there. But best to stick with instruments that are showing signs of at least some near-term support and resistance.
One such instrument is in the interest rates space.
Ok, so the market is bouncing and its offering a nice reprieve to those who've been caught on the wrong side of the recent slide. Does this mean the bottom is in?
It's far too early to tell. And that's not the bet we're making just yet. In fact, today's trade is to take advantage of a nice bounce in a name we're bearish in to position for a retest of recent lows.
Another week and more elevated fears in the marketplace. The Nasdaq QQQ's breached the 300 level intraday today and that's got everyone chirping --- and for good reason.
Of course, the contrarian bird sitting on my shoulder has been uttering the phrase: "the wider the rubber band is stretched, the harder the snap back!"
Now, I'm not going out on a limb and declaring that the bottom for stocks is in and we rally from here. But I do like the odds of a viscous snap back rally materializing at some point this week. And if something like that were to come to pass, I want to be in names that have held up the best in this tape.
In the All Star Charts recent Monthly Charts Strategy Session, JC highlighted a bunch of stocks that have held levels that feel significant.
And since we've seen a lot of damage to bullish charts in recent weeks, the best bets on the board right now appear in stocks that have held up better than the rest.
One mining stock that held up well after hot money ran for the exits is Newmont Corporation $NEM.
Hey everybody. We aren't able to put up a video Jam Session this week as the whole team is off-site in Washington, D.C. attending the CMT Annual Symposium.
Need proof? Here's me, JC, Strazza, and friends in front of the White House at midnight last night! :)
But I still want to update you on action in our open trades this week, as it's been a busy one. So here goes:
The frenetic trading activity that defined the end of last week appears to be continuing into today. And we're seeing VIX north of 30. If I liked selling premium last week, I should love it today, right?
Well, it just so happens we've got an ETF with pricing in June options that is giving us a lot of wiggle room to sell premium into. So we're going to do just that, betting on consumers to chill.
I've been talking recently about how coming out of the March expiration cycle, if feels to me that volatility (as tracked by $VIX) has changed regimes. During the first quarter of this year, buyers of vol dips were rewarded. But now it is my belief that sellers of vol spikes will be rewarded.
With that quick peek into my thinking as a backdrop, the price action in the broader stock market indices over the past few days has caused VIX to pop from 20 to north of 24 in short order and it feels to me that this might offer an advantageous opportunity for us to step in and sell some premium.
Energy names have been working for us. So there's no reason to turn off the spigot just yet. Of course, mindful of our exposure in energy-related sectors already, I want to try to keep any additional risk exposure as limited as possible.
With this in mind, today's play is a bullish bet that we think will take some time to materialize. And we're going to use that assumption to help us lever into a trend at a cheaper cost of participation using a calendar spread.
When one of the biggest stocks in the world in one of the most well-known names in the world breaks out of a two-year base to new all-time highs, we have to pay attention. There may be a lot of ways to interpret this price action, but one thing we cannot call this action is bearish.
And today's early trading action and elevated options premiums are offering us a good opportunity to get advantageously positioned for a big move.
*Steve Strazza wants you all to know that HE came up with this title ;)
I have to be honest, its been hard looking for spots to put more bullish exposure on. Many stocks we like have already had significant bullish runs over the past three weeks. Buying some of these names here would feel like I'm asking to get smacked in the face by a long overdue pullback.
The commodity space is no exception. But we've found a name that looks like its just setting up for a fresh breakout so let's get right to it.