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The ASC team did their monthly conference call this week, where they rip though a million charts and highlight the things we need to pay attention to -- the trends, the divergences, and particular setups in stocks that we like.
The blizzard of information they throw at us can be overwhelming at times. This is why you come to me to cull through it all and find my favorite setups that can be played with options.
Today's pick comes out of that call and its focused on the small business side of things.
The game plan in the markets over the past several quarters has been to buy the dip whenever the S&P 500 approached its 50-day moving average of prices.
So naturally, I spent the weekend thinking about some long trades that I wanted to put on today -- thinking the same old game plan was likely to continue.
Then I woke up to S&P Futures showing the largest gap down opening we've seen in a while and $SPY indicated to open significantly below its 50-day moving average for the first time in seemingly forever.
In other words, the market was telling me to rethink my bullish ideas.
Another 20 year base breakout? This is the second one we're putting a trade on in this week! Maybe the market is trying to tell us something?
I have to be honest, when I first pulled this ticker up, I thought it was a Men's suits maker. But when I learned it's involved in the intersection of Artificial Intelligence and Semiconductors, the sex-factor went up for me.
As is often the case, the Labor Day Weekend has come and gone and some volatility has been reintroduced to the marketplace. And I say: "Welcome back!" with outstreched arms. Volatility = opportunity. Let's get after it.
With the rising volatility, we're seeing premiums start to pump up in options land. When this is the case, I always start hunting for some delta-neutral credit spread opportunities.
Today's hunt has yielded an excellent candidate with clearly defined levels for us to lean against.
The big indexes offered us a little pullback this week which has been helping us identify the true standouts -- the stocks that are holding up best in a down tape. We're all about relative strength at All Star Charts as it is one of the most reliable indicators for us. And true leaders really identify themselves when they are swimming against the current while markets are sliding.
So on days and weeks like this, we're paying very close attention to the strongest sectors and keying in on the strongest stocks to see how they react.
Today, one those names is in the Capital Markets space where we're seen tremendous strength this year.
Steve Strazza and I were chatting this morning shortly after the market opened, looking for trading opportunities.
We were scanning the list of stocks we've been watching and one thing that is plain to see is the stocks that are working are really working. And if we're not in them already, there's no real sense in chasing them here.
My line to him was: "It's August 30th. S&P 500 is all-time highs. You're either already long or you're in cash. There's nothing else to do here but take a walk." He agreed.
So with this in mind, I don't have a new trade idea for us today. But I'll leave you with this...
The ASC team published an Under the Hood report last week in which there were a bunch of interesting opportunities to choose from. But I held my fire -- until now.
After letting these ideas marinate a bit, I've been liking the pullback and solid support holding in one of the names.
In last week's Follow the Flow report, there was a name that caught my attention, but it felt to me the stock had gone too far too fast and I didn't want to chase it.
Well, perhaps my patience is being rewarded as today I'm able to get in with the stock 9 points off last week's highs -- but still sitting right above the level in which we'd like to be involved on the long side.
The mostly sideways slide into autumn is continuing, which has kept me on the hunt for more delta-neutral credit spreads to take advantage of during these slow times.
I generally prefer to do these types of trades on sector or index ETFs. But occasionally, I'll take a flyer on a large cap name which isn't likely to suffer any serious price gaps (especially with no nearby earnings events on the horizon).
In the latest All Star Charts Monthly Conference call, the team mentioned a familiar name that is setting up for some continued sideways action that looks like a really good candidate for an Iron Condor trade.
We've already got some exposure on the books in the financials sector, but with participation broadening, there are additional opportunities to participate.
And one opportunity in particular offers an opportunity to really leverage into a big win if we get it right.