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Earlier this week, we got stopped out of Vertex Pharma $VRTX for a manageable loss. It happens. Now today, a vortex is pulling us in the direction of another Vertex -- Vertex Energy $VTNR. Crazy, huh?
In the end, stocks are all just ticker symbols with dollar signs attached to them that convey any kind of meaning to us. But nonetheless, what are the odds?
Weird coincidences aside, we're liking the setup in this energy name so let's get right to it.
While I prefer to let stocks prove themselves to me before taking a position, sometimes a situation sets up where the stars are aligning for a low risk bet that makes it worth the effort to get ahead of the crowd.
One such situation has developed in a name discussed recently in our Hall of Famers report.
We've experienced a pretty powerful bear market rally on the heels of yesterday's Federal Reserve interest rates announcement. Whether or not it sticks is anybody's guess. But one name in the financials space has stood out for its relative lack of participation in the recent rally off the bear market lows.
Stocks like these are the ones we want to leverage into bearish portfolio hedges. So let's get right to it.
Ok, maybe that title is a little dramatic. I couldn't help myself. I recently had a conversation with a trader friend who was dunking on Gold Bugs about the lack of income stream from Gold. It's just a damn rock! he said.
Anyway, I don't have any strong opinions about Gold either way. I just like to follow price and volatility. And right now, the options market may be offering us a tempting opportunity to collect some premium as the recent gold selloff has spooked the gold bulls a little bit.
Feels like market conditions are improving a bit for the bulls, but we're still going to be picky here. One way we can improve our odds of success is to align our trades with relative strength.
Today's trade is in a sector that has seen both improving absolute price strength, and a widening relative strength gap compared to the broader stock market.
That's a blog post title I never thought I'd write. LOL.
Even more strange, the trade we're putting on today is in a public company with an unusual name I've never heard of before!
Weird times, indeed.
Steve Strazza and I looked at it a bit on Tuesday during our "Flow Show" on twitter and I was less than enthusiastic at the time. But as the trade has marinated around my brain a little bit since then, it has grown on me.
As Strazza mentioned in our Telegram live chat this morning: "Not too many charts look as good as this one right now."
It feels hard to comprehend that we're finding leadership in Chinese tech, internet, and auto stocks, but it's happening. Politicians lie. Prices don't.
And one name we've got an eye on has been coiling in an extremely bullish high flag pattern.
We've seen some bullish thrusts in sectors with ties to the medical and healthcare spaces, and if the broader market has designs on moving higher deeper into the summer, we think leaders will continue to emerge from this area.
Today's trade is a bet on one of those next leaders.
The title of this post is a takeoff from one of my favorite ongoing SouthPark bits involving our friendly Canadian neighbors :)
There seem to be better bearish setups on my radar than bullish ones. This makes sense as I prefer to trade with trends and the overall stock market trend in 2022 has been down. Ballsier traders than me like to step in and "buy the dip." But I'd rather let the market prove itself to me first.
One of the most beaten-down sectors has been tech stocks. Steve Strazza summed up this sector with one word: "Awful." Yeah.
The stock in my crosshairs today comes from this area.
I'll cut right to the chase: JC put out a piece this morning highlighting the relative outperformance of the Healthcare space.
The XLV sector ETF for the space has more or less been consolidating sideways as the broader markets sold off, and one of the bellwethers here is already making new all-time highs. Feels like we'll start to see more candidates here begin to participate as well.
The stock market has breathed a much-needed sigh of relief this week.
Are we out of the woods? I wish I knew.
But in case we're not, I'm hedging a little bit by taking this bounce opportunity to get into a bearish position in an Electric power generation stock that appears to be dead-cat bouncing.
Taking losses is never fun. But it's the most important thing we do.
I wish it were different. I wish smart risk management was an exciting endeavor that made us happy. The kind of thing that makes us want to high-five our friends and adoring fans.
Unfortunately, it's more like that menial task that you have to do over and over again, hating every minute of it, but knowing it just has to be done (like the doing the dishes or laundry).