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I've been talking recently about how coming out of the March expiration cycle, if feels to me that volatility (as tracked by $VIX) has changed regimes. During the first quarter of this year, buyers of vol dips were rewarded. But now it is my belief that sellers of vol spikes will be rewarded.
With that quick peek into my thinking as a backdrop, the price action in the broader stock market indices over the past few days has caused VIX to pop from 20 to north of 24 in short order and it feels to me that this might offer an advantageous opportunity for us to step in and sell some premium.
Energy names have been working for us. So there's no reason to turn off the spigot just yet. Of course, mindful of our exposure in energy-related sectors already, I want to try to keep any additional risk exposure as limited as possible.
With this in mind, today's play is a bullish bet that we think will take some time to materialize. And we're going to use that assumption to help us lever into a trend at a cheaper cost of participation using a calendar spread.
When one of the biggest stocks in the world in one of the most well-known names in the world breaks out of a two-year base to new all-time highs, we have to pay attention. There may be a lot of ways to interpret this price action, but one thing we cannot call this action is bearish.
And today's early trading action and elevated options premiums are offering us a good opportunity to get advantageously positioned for a big move.
*Steve Strazza wants you all to know that HE came up with this title ;)
I have to be honest, its been hard looking for spots to put more bullish exposure on. Many stocks we like have already had significant bullish runs over the past three weeks. Buying some of these names here would feel like I'm asking to get smacked in the face by a long overdue pullback.
The commodity space is no exception. But we've found a name that looks like its just setting up for a fresh breakout so let's get right to it.
The title of this post is the sound I might make if today's trade hits its profit target, helping to offset the pain I'm feeling at the pump every time I fill up my car with gas.
I was just in California this week and paid $6.00/gallon for my rental car. Ouch!!
Today's trade is in a name that has already been a strong performer this year but is showing no signs of stopping as of yet.
Good morning everyone! This dispatch comes to you from deep in the northernmost reaches of Northern California, on the edge of the great Redwoods National Park.
I flew out here on Sunday morning with my oldest friend (since we were both five years old). After landing and shopping for some provisions, we got a short three-mile hike in during the afternoon/early evening to get our feet acclimated. But it was just a warm-up for the 30 miles we hope to cover today through Wednesday. Yesterday, the weather was perfect, the trail conditions were excellent, and the giant Redwoods were absolutely stunning! And we're just getting started. Hopefully, the weather continues to hold up (fingers crossed!).
Of course, I brought my laptop, and since my East Coast friend was suffering from a little jet lag, he crashed early last night. That left me some time to rip through charts in my hotel room, as one, such as me, does.
During my scanning, I couldn't help but get fully distracted by this chart of $GLD:
The ASC team, as always, threw out a bunch of actionable ideas in their most recent Mid-Monthly Conference Call. As you might expect, there's still a lot to like in the energy space. But it might have surprised you to see some bullish setups in some chinese and marijuana space names. I know it did me!
But one name in the Precious Metals sector piqued my interest and when I chatted with Steve Strazza about it this morning, he was pretty excited about it.
Trading opportunities aren't limited to just U.S.-based corporations. And thanks to ADRs, we don't have to go to other foreign exchanges to exploit opportunities in different countries. These companies have tracking shares -- often with tremendous liquidity -- on our exchanges here.
One such opportunity, with a big base that is showing signs of resolving higher, recently appeared in our International Hall of Famers report last week.
Is that a dead cat bounce in the Biotech ETF $XBI that will quickly fade? Or is this week's hard pivot off the $80 level the new floor?
I don't know the definitive answer, but the bet I'm going to make is that $80 will hold at least for a few weeks. If it does and as long as $XBI doesn't overshoot on the upside from here, I think this ETF is offering us a great opportunity to sell some premium here.
In light of global events, we're seeing significant market reactions all over the place. And it seems like the narrative changes on a daily basis. Now more then ever, as a Trader, is it important to turn off the news and follow price. Price doesn't lie.
One trend that has been signficant and showing no signs of stopping is the bullish breakouts we're seeing in energy, commodities, and materials.
And today's name is one of the bellwethers in the space that is beginning to breakout from a multi-year base.
The hunt for options premiums to sell continues. And with VIX showing signs that it might want to give up the 30 level for a little bit, we may have the trend of implied volatility mean-reversion beginning to become a wind in our sails.
A quick perusal of the most liquid ETFs options markets that I follow revealed a surprising sector at the top of the list: Utilities. And the recent price action suggests to me we may have seen the $XLU ETF get a bit ahead of itself, and it could be due for a little consolidation.