Every month we host a conference call for All Star Charts Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
This month's Conference Call will be held Thursday February 11, 2016 at 7PM ET
In this month's premium members conference call, we will discuss the following topics:
- Can we still get a counter-trend rally before getting down to 1720 in the S&P500?
- A deep dive look at the Bond Market and how to profit from it
- Why Emerging Markets will keep outperforming
- Crude Oil and Gold - What do we do with these now?
- Amazon has been a great short, but what do we do with these momentum stocks today?
As always, we'll leave as much time for Q&A as possible.
One of the most valuable tools that we have as market participants is in taking the sum of the parts to help come up with a final conclusion. While we all talk about what the Dow did yesterday or what it’s done year-to-date, it is easy to forget that there are 30 companies driving this popular U.S. stock market benchmark. By going through each of these 30 stocks, we can get a better feel for the market itself rather than just analyzing the performance of the index. To me, it’s the combination of the two that seems to be the best approach.
All of the 30 Dow Components have just been updated in the Chartbook, and here are my notes on the results:
The U.S. Stock market and most of its sectors continue to rally. As happy as we are to see this, and as much as we expect this to continue through February, these are only counter-trend rallies within larger structural declines. The good news is that counter-trend rallies in bear markets historically tend to be the most powerful kind of rallies. I think there is still room to the upside in many different sectors with very well-defined risk.
All of the charts have been updated on the Chartbook. Here are my notes for this week's sector review:
As you guys know I started to turn bullish towards the stock market over the last couple of weeks for the first time since last October. Now, I want to make sure that we all understand that this is just a counter-trend rally within an ongoing bear market. Regardless, this is still a rally that I would like to participate in on the long side and every day
I am finding more and more opportunities to buy beaten down names, just for a trade, of course.
There is much more to life that what the Dow did yesterday. Every week we go chart by chart looking at all of the major U.S. Stock Market Indexes. This analysis includes the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average, Dow Jones Utility Average, Nasdaq100, Russell 2000, Mid-Cap 400, Russell Micro-cap Index, etc.
All of these charts have been updated on both Weekly and Daily timeframes in the Chartbook and these are a few of my notes from this week's analysis including some updated risk vs reward levels:
Please note: this is multi-timeframe analysis looking both long-term and short-term. Defining who you are as an investor
, particularly your time horizon, is especially important at this point as, for the most part, the weekly charts and daily charts are telling different stories because they are on different time frames.
Going country by country all over the world is one of the best tools that we have as market participants. The value that I’ve gotten over the years from looking at the behavior of all of the countries, instead of just the U.S. is a huge factor in why I am such a top/down weight-of-the-evidence guy. There are signs of strength and weakness that we see from international markets that might not be so obvious in the S&P500, for example.
Last September, I promise you that the reason I got bullish tactically was not because of what I was seeing in the United States, but what was happening around the world. There were simply too many bullish momentum divergences and downside objective achieved internationally to ignore. Something was up, and in fact, the counter-trend rally that we got in the U.S. actually exceeded my expectations.
When we talk about leadership in the market, I think it's important to go sector by sector to see where the leaders are and where the laggards might be. To help with this study, we take a look at each of the 10 S&P Sectors and compare them to the performance of the S&P500. This Relative Strength Analysis is one of the best ways to see sector rotation and changes in market leadership.
I have just updated all of the Sector vs S&P500 charts in the ChartBook and here are some of my notes:
As you guys know very well, we have wanted to be short the majority of the U.S. Sectors and Sub-sectors coming into the new year. While we still have much lower downside targets from a structural perspective, tactically speaking, many of our targets were hit this week. This is where we wanted to be covering short positions and, for the most part, looking to reinitiate short positions if and when we get a corrective rally. I have just updated all of the U.S. Sectors and Sub-sectors and they can be seen in the ChartBook.
