It's been a while since I laid out a bunch of short ideas. As you guys know, I've been really bullish since late January. But hey, upside targets get hit, sentiment shifts, and things eventually change. Here are a list of Dow Components that I think are good shorting opportunities today:
We've been pretty neutral the majority of the U.S. Stock Market indexes over the past couple of weeks since they first starting hitting our upside targets. Some of them, like the Nasdaq100 and Mid-cap400 had yet to reach out upside objectives, but we are approaching those now. I will argue, though, that the developments we've seen are constructive, both in price behavior and in the breadth itself.
Here is what I think we need to keep in mind with each of the major Indexes. We're using only bar charts today in order to put extra emphasis on price for this particular exercise:
Over the past few days I've received a number of requests from members asking me to post a the updated charts on my favorite U.S .Stock Market short right now. In last week's letter I mentioned how Utilities were not a place we wanted to be long and there were a few ways to take advantage of the individual components of the sector.
Today I want to dive into those individual charts:
U.S. Treasury Bonds have treated us very well this year. Coming into January we wanted to buy a breakout above $122-123 in the U.S. Treasury Bond ETF $TLT with a target above $133. This upside target was achieved last month as interest rates simultaneously hit our downside target, 1.65% in the 10-year yield. Since then, we've wanted to back off and let new data dictate our next move. Over the past month, we've seen rates bounce back up towards 2.0% and the $TLT has fallen back down towards $128.
The question now becomes: Do we get back in on the long side? Or is there more consolidation or price correction needed first?
This is a forgotten space. Since early 2014, the last time Ags had any sort of meaningful rally, we've just seen a deterioration of prices. Whether you're looking at Corn, or Coffee, or Soybeans, the Ags have gotten destroyed. We've see massive rallies this year out of some of the other commodities like in Energy and Metals. Now I think it's time for the Ags to participate in this Commodities Rally.
Cotton has been in a horrific bear market for 5 years. When you talk about some of the worst places to be on planet earth over the past half-decade, Cotton has to be near the top of the list. After peaking near 220 in early 2011, the price of Cotton has collapsed recently hitting a low under 55.
We've had quite a rally over the past month in the U.S. Stock Market. This is exactly the type of behavior that we should come to expect after a failed breakdown and bullish momentum divergence, like we saw occur in early February. Let's remember that the U.S. and other developed markets, like Europe for example, are the laggards here. We turned bullish Global Equities in late January, particularly Emerging Markets, and it wasn't until a retest of the January lows, that we started to see the shift in the U.S. and other developed economies early last month.
We only wanted to be long the S&P500 if we were above the August and September lows. The bullish momentum divergence on last month's sell-off helped spark this mean reversion rally.
