With Chemical Stocks breaking out to all-time highs, I can't think of a better time than now to do a deep dive analysis on what is going on in the space. You guys know how much I've liked the Chemicals for a while now. This has been a monster since early last year and then picked up again after last summer.
When we talk about the Materials Sector, Chemicals aren't exactly the first thing that might come to mind. But if you dig deep into the Materials space, it is clear that the Chemicals are the leadership sub-group within the broader sector. Today we're going to dive in and see what is really going on here.
Today we're going to focus on what is taking place specifically in the Consumer Discretionary space. This is one of the largest sectors in the S&P500 with respects to the number of components, but the differences between all of the stocks in the group really stand out. While we are seeing some strength in Online Retail and some of the Homebuilders, the Apparel and Traditional Retailer space look terrible. So we don't just want to be buying this sector blindly. I think we need to pick and choose our spots.
In this report I wanted to do a deeper dive into Consumer Discretionary to try and determine the direction of the next major moves and how to best take advantage of it:
Today we are taking a look at the most important stock sector in the world: Financials. If Financials are leading the stock market higher, it's hard to be bearish equities as an asset class. The first thing we want to do is start from the top with Financials relative to the rest of the market as well as from a long-term perspective. Then we'll take a look at some breadth internals and the sub-sectors that fall within the larger spectrum of Financials, like Regional Banks and Insurance. Once we get structural perspective on Financials as a group, then we'll work our way down to the individual stock level. That's the top/down approach that we incorporate into every sector in the market and country around the world.
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
We've been bullish towards US and Global Stocks once again since last month. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. What we're seeing in the bond market, however, is suggesting interest rates are heading higher. The implications here for assets like Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and the US Dollar is also important to recognize.
I'll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there! This month's Conference Call will be held on Monday June 19th at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details:
The Bond Market is a very misunderstood place. Usually all we hear are complaints. Fed this, Yellen that, something about her books being beige. I don't know. I can't keep up anymore. To me the Bond Market is place to find information that we can't get anywhere else. Even if you don't trade bonds, you must care about the direction of interest rates. But more importantly it's the intermarket implications of movements in rates that we're most concerned about. How is the next 3-6 month direction of interest rates and credit spreads going to affect stocks and commodities? WAs investors we're obviously interested in all of these things.
It's the end of the month so you know what that means: Brand new freshly completed monthly candlesticks for us to review. While I normally use weekly charts to get structural perspective on markets and then daily charts for tactical purposes, the monthly chart review is done at the end of each month to help identify the primary trends around the market. This is for us who want to avoid the day to day noise surrounding politics or the Fed or whatever news story is being sensationalized this week.
My weekly run through the S&P500 components is one of my favorite parts of the work week. I put on some music and go through all 1000+ charts. Remember we use the weekly charts to get structural perspective and then the daily timeframes to define more tactical opportunities: 2 charts for each of the 500 stocks. I then break down the index into 11 Sectors and run my analysis of stocks one sector at a time. This way it helps give me a better feel for that particular area within the entire stock market. To take it one step further, I then break down each of the 11 sector workbooks of charts into sub-sectors. So for example, in the "Energy Sector" there will be 4 sub-sectors: Integrateds, Services, Exploration/Production and Refiners.
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
We had been implementing a much more neutral approach towards equities and even most commodities since early March. This strategy worked well as many stocks, sectors and countries were in a sideways mess. Over the past week or so I believe things have changed and there are plenty of risk vs reward opportunities on the long side that we've outlined in recent letters.
I'll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there! It will be held on Thursday May 18th at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details: