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Are You Buying Small-caps?

May 8, 2023

It's now or never.

The Russell2000 Small-cap Index is back down near last Summer's lows.

If there was ever a time for buyers to step up, it's right now.

And funny enough, relative to the Large-cap S&P500 Index, the Russell2000 is back down to the 2020 lows.

Again, if there was ever a time for buyers to step in, now is the time:

Your Tiny Banks Don't Matter

May 4, 2023

Another day goes by and another bank that doesn't matter disappears.

This is a big deal.

In theory, investors should care about a handful of these regional banks no longer in existence.

But they don't.

In theory, there should be systemic implications to all of this, and the selling in little regional banks should spill into other, more important, parts of the market.

But it hasn't.

In theory, the inverted yield curve should precede a recession and all the money printing should ultimately cause a collapse.

But it hasn't.

And that's my point here.

At what point does anyone care?

I'm waiting for it myself.

For me, it's two things:

The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

May 3, 2023

These tiny banks have been in trouble for quite some time.

That we know.

The question has been more about whether or not the selling spills into other parts of the market.

So far it has not.

The spikes in volatility in the bond market, for example, have only resulted in volatility in these little banks.

We have not seen it spill into other asset classes, and certainly not in the majority of stocks.

Remember, the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 just closed the month of April at the highest levels in a year.

Where's the volatility?

The VIX just closed at new 52-week lows last week.

So here's the deal.

This is what Regional Banks and Community Banks look like right now: Major tops, completing and collapsing.

These are classic bullish to bearish reversal patterns:

Why Are Investors So Scared?

April 24, 2023

You want to talk about trends?

The biggest trend I see is that stocks keep going up in price, but investors are more pessimistic than ever.

I don't understand...

What are people so angry about? Why are they so scared?

Barron's latest Big Money poll shows that out of the 130 managers polled only 6% of their clients were bullish.

lol 6%?

The Biggest Surprise

April 20, 2023

The weakness in the US Dollar over the past couple of quarters comes as no surprise to us.

The journalists nailed it again.

What else is new?

But here's what really has surprised me.

If you would have told me in September that the Dollar would fall apart over the next 2 quarters, I would have told you that precious metals are likely doing well in that environment. I would have also said that Silver would outperform Gold during that period.

In this case I would have been absolutely right.

Great.

But what I would have also been confident about is foreign equities doing well in that weaker Dollar environment.

And while I would have also been correct in that guess, I would have definitely told you that it would be Emerging Markets outperforming, not Developed Markets.

And that would have been very wrong.

It's been the Developed Markets outside the U.S. that have been dominating the equities markets over the past couple of quarters. Look at the performance of these assets since the Dollar peaked:

Where the new highs at?

April 19, 2023

In bull markets you regularly see more and more stocks making new highs.

That's just a normal characteristic of this type of market environment.

Yesterday we saw a ton of stocks making new 52-week highs - names like Nvidia, AstraZeneca, Salesforce, Lockheed Martin, General Electric, Chipotle, Autozone, Motorola, Lennar and many others.

However, in aggregate we have yet to see that key breakout in breadth expansion in the new 52-week highs list.

The new lows list is non existent. It's been that way since the 4th quarter last year.

But where the new highs at?

Investors Don't Believe Their Eyes

April 18, 2023

Thanks to everyone who joined us LIVE last night for our Mid-Month Conference Call.

Premium Members can access the video here and download all the slides.

Throughout the call we discussed how we want to continue to profit from this raging bull market in stocks.

The list of participants in this bull keeps getting longer, not shorter. We're seeing more and more stocks going up, more sectors and more countries around the world participating to the upside.

Doesn't Have To Be An Inflation Hedge

April 14, 2023

For many years, we had to hear those miserable gold bugs telling us how inflation was coming and Gold would be our savior.

Well, inflation came in harder than at any point in over 40 years and Gold prices fell.

So the same people who owned the only asset not making any money for an entire decade, got it wrong again.

I can't believe it.

So here we are, Gold prices are pressing up against all-time highs again, now that inflation expectations have been falling off a cliff.

Healthcare Stocks Ripping Again

April 6, 2023

It's about time that Healthcare stocks get going again.

Remember, this is the 2nd largest sector weighting in the S&P500 (after Technology).

It's a really important group of stocks, representing over 14% of the index, that had essentially gone nowhere for 2 years.

Until the past few weeks....

How will a breakout in Healthcare impact the S&P500?

Do you think S&Ps roll over and break down if the 2nd largest component is breaking out of a multi-year base to new all-time highs?

"Only 5-10 stocks are holding up this market"

April 5, 2023

Have you heard the latest?

They're telling us that only 5-10 stocks are holding up this market.

How dumb do they think we are?

Go look for yourself.

I count well over 100 stocks that are over $10B market cap with returns greater than 20% just in 2023 alone. These are NYSE and Nasdaq stocks.

Half of those are up over 30%.

And many more are up over 40%.

It would be weird

April 4, 2023

Asset prices trend.

We know this.

We all have the data.

Just because some (most) investors choose to ignore it, doesn't mean that moves in stock prices are random.

They're not.

Stock prices trend.

It's just math. Or science maybe. Or both, I don't know.

But they do trend. This we know is a fact.

And since last June, the majority of stocks have been appreciating in price. And very few stocks have been falling in price, to the point where there are almost no stocks that are still falling.

So if stocks were not going up in price in this environment, that would be really weird.