The Nasdaq100 is already down 4.5% this month. Technology as a sector is down almost 6.5% for August.

But corrections are a choice, not a requirement.

As an investor, you make the choice and decide which assets you want to own and which you do not.

Remember, "Passive Investing" is a lie. There's no such thing. All investors are active. The difference is whether you choose your portfolio holdings, or you let some random index providers make those decisions for you.

But we're all active investors, whether we like it or not. Don't forget that.

So even thought the indexes are messy this quarter, take a look at Energy hitting new 6-month highs this week:

We're almost half way through the 3rd quarter already!

Boy does time fly when you're having fun.

Have you noticed how much different the 2nd half of the year looks compared to the first half?

We're thrilled to see it.

Owning Tech stocks stuck below overhead supply is no way to go through life.

Here is the Market-cap Weighted Technology Index failing miserably to break out above its former cycle peak.

And, of course, the Equally-weighted Technology Index failing altogether to even retest its former highs:

Over the past few weeks we've been positioning ourselves for a Regime Change.

It's not so much the end of the world that's coming, as it is just healthy, normal sector rotation.

See: If not Tech, then What?

The most important chart that helps to explain what's going on is the S&P500 and Nasdaq100.

This is what being stuck below overhead supply looks like:

Remember in the back half of last year, when virtually everything was working EXCEPT for Tech stocks?

Well a funny thing happened early in 2023, money rotated into Tech and other Large-cap Growth.

These Tech stocks did so well, that people who are bad at math convinced themselves, and others around them, that it was only 5 or 7 stocks going up.

That was hilarious.

And while it definitely wasn't just 7 stocks, but thousands of stocks ripping in your face all year, Technology was certainly the leader along the way, particularly on a market-cap weighted basis.

But that relative strength has been rolling over the past few months as momentum has also diverged negatively.

Doesn't that make perfect sense during a regime change?

Take a look at a chart of Technology relative to the S&P500 already making new multi-month lows:

It took most investors over a year to realize stocks had been in a bull market that whole time.

And now that, "breadth is finally improving" and, "the recession isn't coming", you get the classic rug pull and rotation into defensive sectors.

This is just a friendly reminder that the most bullish period of the entire 4-year cycle has just come to an end.

How'd you do?

Stocks broke records in terms of performance and have been in the midst of a raging bull market, driven by sector rotation and breadth expansion.

All of this is perfectly normal.

Stocks did very well at exactly the time that they were supposed to.

Not sure why so many are surprised by it.

Now that even the biggest permabears threw in the towel and started turning more optimistic, we are now entering the most bearish time for stocks:

The fact that Energy hasn't even broken out yet really stands out to me.

Energy, and commodities in general, have been left for dead this year.

Investors have forgotten about that third asset class: Commodities.

It's not just stocks and bonds kids.

There are Commodities too!

Here's the Energy Sector Index, flat over the past 15 years.

It still hasn't even broken out:

I still don't think the second half of 2023 is going to look like the first half.

A lot of things could be different.

Let's remember, in the back half of 2022 almost every stock and sector was already going up, EXCEPT for Mega-cap growth.

And then in early January, they got the rotation they were looking for, and it became Tech and Growth as the leaders of this Bull Market.

Now that we're in Month #14 of this Bull Market regime, and we've seen several cycles of rotation already, I think it's time for another one.

First of all, take a look at the Nasdaq100 $QQQ currently running into former resistance from late 2021, that preceded the failed breakout and ensuing collapse:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average are both hitting new 52-week highs.

These are things we see regularly in uptrends. Not so much in downtrends:

Here's something you don't see every day.

European Financials hitting new 52-week highs?

Crude Oil futures are pushing up against new 3-month highs just as investors have given up on the commodities trade.

No one I speak to thinks Energy leads the way in the 2nd half of 2023.

And I speak to a lot of people who got the past year very right. Even they don't believe...

Here's what I see: Former resistance for Crude Oil in 2018 turning into support throughout the past year: