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Tech Leads In Bull Markets

November 8, 2023

The Nasdaq100 index just went out at the highest levels in history relative to the much broader Russell3000 Index.

Technology represents about 50% of the Nasdaq100, with Apple's weighting coming in at 11% of the index and Microsoft currently at just over 10%.

But the Nasdaq100 is a good representation of these mega-cap names, because Amazon, Google, Meta and Tesla all carry huge weightings. Remember, none of these stocks are in the Tech Index.

So the Nasdaq100 broadens it out to what most people consider "Tech".

Here's the QQQ hitting new all-time highs relative to Russell3000:

New Lows Peaked a While Ago

November 7, 2023

Everyone knows that it's a market of stocks.

Sometimes investors forget that there are 500+ stocks in the S&P500, 30 stocks in the DJ Industrial Avg and approximately 3000 stocks in the Russell3000.

This is all free and public information.

But still, investors forget, especially during times when it's most important to remember.

That's just human nature.

We take things for granted until we need them the most.

This quarter has been a prime example.

You see, while the S&P500 and other indexes were making new lows last month, the list of stocks making new lows had already peaked in early October.

We discussed the lack of new 52-week lows already.

But here's a closer look at the new 6-month lows on the NYSE, or lack thereof to be more specific:

When Does Correction End?

October 27, 2023

We're over 3 and half months into a stock market correction that I keep being told is just the beginning of a major crash.

I'm just not seeing it.

This continues to look like a regular seasonal correction that we've seen so many times around this time of the year.

In other words, if the market was NOT correcting like it has been, that would actually be very unusual.

Here's what each of the sectors and major indexes have done since the new 52-week highs list peaked in July:

When Year End Rally?

October 21, 2023

Aren't we supposed to get a rally into the end of the year?

That's what the seasonal trends throughout history would suggest.

I mean, we got the seasonal strength earlier this year, as the Nasdaq put up the greatest first half to the year ever.

And then the typical Q3 Pre-election year weakness came, which could not have been more normal.

Now this is about the time where stocks get going into year end.

So then NOT Transitory?

October 20, 2023

Did you think inflation was just going to come and go?

Just like that? And now we all move on?

I highly doubt that it's that simple.

According to the bond market, inflationary pressures are likely just getting started.

This is a $120 Trillion asset class that's so big there's just no where to hide.

For instance, take a look at the Inflation-protected Treasury Securities, that we refer to as TIPs. And when you compare them to nominal yielding Treasury Bonds, you'll notice the new 52-week highs this week in the ratio between the two.

This is what the bond market is pricing in for inflation. Not the angry economist on the internet. Not the pretty lady on basic cable.

This is the bond market. This is whose opinion actually matters:

Your Unlikely Hero

October 17, 2023

Have you noticed how everyone forgot about Healthcare stocks?

All it took was 2 years of no progress for everyone to lose track of just what a monster this trade has been for so long.

Just to put things in perspective, here's what Healthcare as a sector has done over the past 20 years:

Happy Anniversary Bull Market

October 16, 2023

How come so many investors get mad that an index, which was designed to buy more of the best stocks and less or none of the worst stocks, owns more of the best stocks and less or none of the worst stocks?

The S&P500 is up over 21% since the October low last year. In fact, last week marked the 1 year anniversary of this bull market.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq100 is up 40% over the past 12 months (because it's a bear market?)

During this time, Technology is up 46%, Communications is up 42% and Industrials are up 22% - representing the 3 best performing groups of stocks.

These are not random moves

October 11, 2023

Now is the time.

If stocks are going to go, this is when they usually do it.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is only 9% from making a new all-time high.

So is the S&P500.

And what do I think the catalyst is going to be?

Let me rephrase that....

What do I think the catalyst needs to be?

A weaker US Dollar!

World's Biggest Trend?

October 5, 2023

This has to be one of the world's most important trends right now. How could it not be?

You hear all this nonsense about the S&P493 and how it's only 7 stocks going up.

But those are just lies. That's not how the market works, and that is certainly not what's been happening this year.

The real trend here is in the outperformance of the largest companies, particularly mega-cap growth, relative to other indexes with more diversified sector exposure and market-caps.

This is the Nasdaq100 making new all-time highs relative to the much broader Russell3000 Index:

Energy Wins & Utilities Lose Again

October 3, 2023

We have a big night ahead of us. Are you ready?

This only happens 12 times each year, where we get a fresh batch of Monthly Candlesticks and data sets.

It's that time again!

Tonight at 6PM ET I'll be hosting our LIVE Monthly Charts Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

What do we need to own as we head into the final quarter of the year?

What do we need to avoid?

Here are the final numbers for Q3. Energy won and Utilities lost again!

Most Important Chart of 2023

September 26, 2023

This has to be it right?

How is this one not the world's most important chart?

With the US 10-year Yield hitting the highest levels in 15 years, Crude Oil has caught a bid lately hitting the highest levels all year.