From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the relative strength trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
Last week, we mentioned we were no longer in a split market, but rather in an environment supported by strong internals and an aggressive appetite for risk assets.
This week, we're preaching much of the same.
We continue to see rotation down the market-cap scale, into Micro-Caps and SMIDS, confirming the strong underlying market internals.
Growth and sector leaders, such as Technology $XLK, Communications $XLC, and Consumer Discretionary $XLY are underperforming, but still holding important levels.
Rather than make premature bets on sustained outperformance from sector laggards like Financials, Industrials, and Energy, we...
Something we’ve been working on internally this year is using various bottoms-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. One way we’re doing this is by identifying stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small, to mid, to large, and ultimately to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B) they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn’t just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, and Salesforce, to a myriad of others… all would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.
When you look at the stocks in our table you will notice we are only...
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the relative strength trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We've explained how we continue to see the weight of the evidence shifting in favor of the bulls with each passing week.
We can finally say we're no longer in a split market environment. Instead, we see a market supported by strong internals where the bias is clearly higher for equities and risk-assets alike.
After the prior week's resurgence from the Tech/Growth trade, as well as new highs from many of the major sectors and indexes, this week showed a strong rotation back into cyclical groups.
I know we've discussed the potential for some serious sector rotation before. But we haven't seen such a strong week from economically sensitive groups like this just yet.
These are the registration details for our live monthly conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.
This month’s Conference Call will be held onMonday November 16th at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.
Before we start, just want to give a big h/t to our intern @GrantHawkridge for helping out bigly with this research and post.
Some might even call this post a...JOINT venture.
We'll be here all week.
Now, let's get into the charts.
First, let us start at the industry level with the Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ). There is nothing bullish about this chart and made no progress in 2020. Prices have re-tested resistance multiple times, however, each time sellers came in and defended that level.
For now, the benefit of the doubt goes to the bears as this is a sideways trend at best, at least until prices can get above this 15-16 range.
Click on chart to enlarge view.
On a relative basis, this thing is sitting near all-time lows relative to the S&P 500. ...
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the relative strength trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
Despite being in a split market environment, we've pointed out how the weight of the evidence continues to shift further and further in the direction of the bulls with each passing week.
This past week, we finally saw what appears to be the tipping point as stocks and risk-assets were all up generously. We've been waiting for the market to make up its mind from a risk-appetite perspective, as well as for the stock market to pick a direction after almost three months of sideways action.
Not only was the S&P up over 7% last week, but it's following through with a monster move today. The S&P is up about 3.5% as I write this.
But there's even more good news for investors... it looks as...
There was a lot of movement across asset classes over the last week, but more importantly, the market gave us some key inflection points to trade against.
In this post, we're going to look at Precious Metals and review how we should be approaching them.
Thanks to everyone for participating in this Week's Mystery Chart. Most of you were sellers but the chart was inverted, so you were actually buyers.
We'd be buying this chart too, so let's dive right in and see what it is and why we're all so bullish.
This week's chart was the Invesco Chinese Technology ETF $CQQQ.
In this post, we'll dig into the strongest Chinese technology stocks and outline some trade ideas as a way to express our bullish thesis.
We'll also discuss some intermarket implications of this ETF and its components.
We're going to take a close look at these Chinese tech giants and see if we can glean some insight into the internals of CQQQ in addition to other International Indexes.
First of all, the chart looks a good deal different than it did when we posted the Mystery Chart earlier this week.
This isn't just because it was inverted, but also because...
When I was going through my charts this week, this is one of the ones that stood out the most. I see Biotechnology, on both an equally-weighted and cap-weighted basis, breaking out of major bases.
More specifically, if you look at the Cap-weighted Index Fund $IBB, we're talking about half a decade of no progress. It looks to me like this is all changing now:
Click on Charts to Zoom in
Look at Biotech relative to the rest of the stock market. Again, I'm seeing a half-decade long consolidation resolving higher:
Look how clean this chart below of $XBI is. This is the equally-weighted Biotech Index fund breaking out of a 5-year base to new all-time highs. Then, achieving its price objective near 120, consolidating further, and now starting its next leg higher, in my opinion.
Our target in $XBI is 167 and this is a group we want to own if it's above 120:
Something we’ve been working on internally this year is using various bottoms-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. One way we’re doing this is by identifying stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small, to mid, to large, and ultimately to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B) they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn’t just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, and Salesforce, to a myriad of others… all would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.
When you look at the stocks in our table you will notice we are only...