From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Every time we see a few days of strength from Financials or Energy, people come out of the woodwork to call a bottom in the Value Factor.

After the last few weeks of action, we find ourselves back in this position.

So is this time different? Let's take a look.

Monthly charts force us to take a step back and identify the direction of the primary trend. By erring in the direction of these trends, we are increasing our probabilities of success. Markets trend. That's why Technical Analysis works. This process at the end of each month is arguably the most valuable part of all the work I do. I can tell you that from the bottom of my heart.

One that definitely stands out here is the Dow Jones Industrial Average going out at new all-time monthly closing highs. This is the highest monthly close in the history of the stock market:

Another interesting one is Gold going out at new 6-year highs:

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

The good news is the S&P 500 and several other large-cap US indexes are back at all-time highs, however, the bad news is there remains a lack of confirmation from breadth and momentum readings around the world.

Needless to say, it was easier to be buying stocks last month than it is today, but let's avoid getting into the weeds and simply look at the number of markets around the world above their 2018 highs.

Below is a table of the global equity markets we track prices in their local currencies. While there are performance stats from several key inflection points like the January 2018 and September highs in the S&P 500, as well as its bottom on December 24th, we want to focus on the left-most "Change From 2018 Highs" column.

This compares the market prices now to where they were at their highest point in 2018, or in other words, it gives us an idea of what the trend is.

Currently, the median stock market in the world is 6.22% off its 2018 high.

Click on table to enlarge view.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

I just finished this week's Top 10 Charts Report for Institutional Clients, but I wanted to carve out two Asian Equity Market charts for this post to highlight a tactical opportunity we're seeing in that part of the world.

So I did.

Let's take a look.

These are the registration details for the monthly conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts. In this call we will discuss the global market environment and how to profit from it. As always, this will include Stocks, Interest Rates, Commodities and Currencies. The video of the call will be archived in the members section to re-watch any time and the PDF of the charts will be made available as well.

This month’s Conference Call will be held on Monday June 19th at 7PM ET. Here are the details for the call:

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Today we're looking at two Commodity charts that offer both intermarket signals and potential trading opportunities.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

On May 1st, we wrote an update called "Canada or Cantada" going through the major sectors/indexes to provide a view on how we wanted to approach Canadian Equities.

As we can see, there are more uptrends than downtrends from a structural perspective. Tactically however, most of these are not at levels where we want to be initiating new positions or have a lot of conviction. After strong moves since December, they need some consolidation to digest those gains and set up for a sustained move higher.

Another thing to note is that the more defensive areas of the market like REITs and Staples have the clearest structural uptrends of the group. They make up a smaller portion of the market, but I think it's still an interesting signal about market participants' risk appetite and outlook for Interest Rates.

Additionally Energy and Materials account for roughly 30% of the index and remain a headwind, so without rotation into those names I think it'll be tough for the TSX Composite to break out to the upside.

Life can be simple or you can make things complicated and noisy. It's up to you.

What business are you in? The business of trying to make money in the market or the business of making and/or consuming noise?

I was out in Greece on my honeymoon for a couple of weeks last month, but I was keeping an eye on what was going on. I love the market and I enjoy observing human behavior. So why should I completely shut myself off from something I like doing?

Now that I am married, I would very much like to keep my wife happy, and I also think it's important to get away (see here). So appropriately I shut things off and enjoyed my time in, what are now officially, my favorite islands in the world. It was funny because some of the locals in the Cyclades Islands were telling me how much they wanted to go to the Caribbean. I was like, "Naw man, stay here. Trust me!"

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Stocks showing relative strength in this environment remain on our radar since the list of them has shrunk day by day over the last month.

For our Institutional Clients, we provide more tactical trade ideas or "plus-ones" that don't necessarily fit a broader theme but are still an attractive opportunity worth exploring.

Today I want to share one of those ideas from a subsector of the market that may surprise you...Retail.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

At the beginning of May, we put out a note about the failed breakout in many of the major indexes and why a more cautious stance was warranted for US and global equities. The divergences we were seeing slowly add up had finally been confirmed by price and we raised cash and stepped aside.

Since then, patience has paid if you let it.

Lack of trend, not just in the US, but globally, has been THE theme.

A month later, let's look at what's changed since then and if our gameplan needs to be adjusted at all.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

The US Dollar has frustrated the majority of market participants this year, particularly if they're only looking at the US Dollar Index.

With that said, we've been focused on other US Dollar pairs that aren't getting much attention but are trending well and providing us with plenty of opportunities.