Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
It’s no secret that we’ve been looking for evidence of improving breadth that would support last month’s breakouts in the small-cap and mid-cap indexes and provide fuel for a rally into the first quarter of next year. Instead we are finding evidence of the opposite - that rally participation is struggling to robustly expand. That’s the message when we look beneath the surface of the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ composite closed at a new high on the same day that the new low list rose to its highest level since March. March 2020. Another way to look at it (shown on the chart below) is that never in my career have I witnessed more NASDAQ stocks making new 52-week lows on the same day that the NASDAQ Composite made a new 52-week high. I don’t know if it will be the case this time, but when the market is heading for trouble, new low lists crescendo in size. This is not unlike tremors before an earthquake.
Key Takeaway: Bullish sentiment is on the rise. The bears may be reluctant to leave the party, but the bulls squarely outnumber their counterparts. The AAII survey shows bulls exceeding bears by two-to-one, and the II bull-bear spread is back within a high optimism zone. At the same time, options markets reveal that volatility and fear are being replaced by complacency. Though optimism has risen sharply during the past few weeks, current levels do not present risk. However, problems may arise when the lofty expectations associated with the sentiment backdrop are not met.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Risk On Buffett Lacking Calories
Key Takeaway: Inflation remains hot as narratives shift. Yields perk up as the bond market takes notice of price pressure. Gold catches a bid as real rates remain negative. Breadth trends point to US leadership.
Recent leaders have become near-term laggards, with Energy and Financials dropping to the bottom of the shorter-term relative strength rankings. Energy remains strong overall across the rankings and our industry group heat map. The cooling in Financials could be more significant.
Materials is gaining strength from a sector ranking perspective and is seeing improving trends in our industry group work. We are also seeing pockets of strength within Industrials (Capital Goods and Transportation) and Tech (Semiconductors).
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
After my daughter’s flight landed in Minneapolis, she had to hurry through the terminal to catch a bus for the ride that would complete the final leg of her trip back to college. She did a great job of navigating uncertainties and asking for directions. She went where she was told and saw people, but no bus. "Just wait here," she was told, "the bus shows up, you get on, and it leaves right away."
A couple of buses came, some people got on, the buses left. Meanwhile, her ride was still a no-show.
But people who appeared to be in-the-know said she was in the right spot.