From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• Our macro universe was red this week as 68% of our list closed lower with a median return of -0.71%.
• The US 10-Year Yield $TNX was the winner, gaining about 26bps on the week.
• The biggest loser was Russell 1000 Growth $IWF, with a weekly loss of -4.84%.
• There was a 4% drop in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 51%.
• 21% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs, 13...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The stock market’s reaction to this week’s sharp rise in bond yields has intensified talk of a durable shift in long-term equity leadership, within the US as well as on a global basis. That discussion leads to questions about the best way to visually represent such shifts and what relationships we want to keep our eyes on for evidence that such a shift is indeed taking place. In terms of shifting US leadership, you could do a lot worse than the ratio between the old AMEX Composite (technically now it is the NYSE Mkt Composite) and the S&P 500. The AMEX Composite has less of a mega-cap, tech-sector focus than does the SP& 500. S&P 500 leadership peaked in the late 1990’s and this was followed by a decade of relative strength out of the AMEX. The following decade was again dominated by the S&P 500, but over the past year, the AMEX has perked up and looks ready to wear the leadership mantle again. Getting above its June and November highs versus the S&P 500 would be strong evidence that it is ready for that role. Despite carnage elsewhere to begin 2022, the AMEX Composite closed at a new high as recently as...

This is the video recording of the January 6th Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets

01/06/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

I recently watched The Matrix with my son. 

Not the fourth installment released late last year, but the original movie – the one that came out more than 20 years ago.

One important caveat: My son is only 13. The Matrix is an R-rated movie filled with violent action scenes. So I didn’t take the decision to let him watch the movie lightly.

Ultimately, I decided the movie raises some important ideas that I wanted to share with him. I'm not talking about ideas of simulated reality or various theatrical elements. For me, one of the key insights is that by tuning out the noise, we can improve our decision making. By focusing on what matters, we have more time to act. When wisdom combines with clarity of purpose, the seconds seem to tick by more slowly.

This doesn't just happen in the movies. Watch an experienced quarterback engineer a winning touchdown drive in the final two minutes of a football game and you will get a sense of what I mean. They seem to have more time to decide, act, and react than anyone else on the field. Maybe time is indeed passing more slowly for them.

What does...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Year-end strength in stocks alleviated some of the concern that had crept into investors’ collective psyche. Short-term sentiment swings aside, investors remained positioned aggressively long stocks at a time when strategic risks remain high. December set a monthly record for equity ETF inflows and that price chasing pushed equity valuations to some of their highest levels on record. The optimism in positioning is not reflected in the sentiment surveys. But if the unwinding in the speculative bubble that peaked early last year gains steam, look for a lack of optimism to be replaced with outright pessimism, followed by a re-positioning of assets.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Commodities soar but struggle for attention

After a relative lull around mid-year, equity ETF inflows intensified as 2021 came to a close. A record $90 billion flowed into equity ETFs in December and pushed the total for the year above $650 billion.  Commodities continue to...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

This All Star Charts +Plus Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of largely binary decisions and tactical calls. Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard, this piece is designed to help active asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Continuation Patterns And Primary Uptrends

As we enter the new year, let’s take a step back and discuss where we’ve come from. The following chart is an excellent illustration of the price action for risk assets in 2021. As you can see, both stocks and commodities went through a corrective phase for much of the year and remain stuck in their ranges as we head into 2022. Markets can't go sideways forever, so we expect resolutions sooner rather than later. And because the vast majority of these consolidations are simply continuation patterns within the context of primary uptrends, we’re expecting upside resolutions. The question simply remains “when?”

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• Our macro universe was green this week as 72% of our list closed higher with a median return of 0.52%.
• This week, Lumber $LB was the winner, closing with a 9.07% gain.
• The biggest loser was the Volatility index $VIX, with a weekly loss of -4.12%.
• There was a 2% gain in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 55%.
• 57% of our sector list made fresh 4-week highs, 21% made...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Large-caps take the 2021 crown as mid-caps & small-caps struggle to get back in gear. US strength not being echoed among global equities. Tactical risk management model gives benefit of the doubt to bulls.

• Entering 2022, Real Estate, Technology, Health Care and Consumer Staples hold down the top spots in our S&P 500 sector relative strength rankings.
• Our industry group-based heat map shows deteriorating conditions across Energy and Financials and improving conditions in Staples and Utilities. Leadership from defensive groups is not usually consistent with risk-on behavior.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

A “Santa Claus Rally” For Stocks

The last 5 trading days of the year and the first two of the new year represent a historically strong period for the market. This seasonal trend is referred to as the “Santa Claus Rally” and occurs during one of the best 7-day periods based on data all the way back to 1950. The market is off to a good start as today is the first day of this period and the S&P is already back to all-time highs for the first time since November. The main support level we have been watching in recent weeks is those September highs around 4,500. Buyers dug in and successfully defended this zone twice this month, and now they are trying to make a sustained breakout back to fresh record highs. If we hold above the November and December highs ~4,700 we’re likely to see a fresh leg higher for the broader market, and particularly US large caps.

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• This week, our macro universe was in the green as 83% of our list closed higher with a median return of 1.58%.
• The US 10-Year Yield $TNX was the winner this week, closing with a 6.49% gain.
• The biggest loser was the Volatility index $VIX which posted a loss of -16.74%.
• There was an 8% gain in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 53%.
• 45% of our sector list made fresh...