Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
Not the fourth installment released late last year, but the original movie – the one that came out more than 20 years ago.
One important caveat: My son is only 13. The Matrix is an R-rated movie filled with violent action scenes. So I didn’t take the decision to let him watch the movie lightly.
Ultimately, I decided the movie raises some important ideas that I wanted to share with him. I'm not talking about ideas of simulated reality or various theatrical elements. For me, one of the key insights is that by tuning out the noise, we can improve our decision making. By focusing on what matters, we have more time to act. When wisdom combines with clarity of purpose, the seconds seem to tick by more slowly.
This doesn't just happen in the movies. Watch an experienced quarterback engineer a winning touchdown drive in the final two minutes of a football game and you will get a sense of what I mean. They seem to have more time to decide, act, and react than anyone else on the field. Maybe time is indeed passing more slowly for them.
Key Takeaway: Year-end strength in stocks alleviated some of the concern that had crept into investors’ collective psyche. Short-term sentiment swings aside, investors remained positioned aggressively long stocks at a time when strategic risks remain high. December set a monthly record for equity ETF inflows and that price chasing pushed equity valuations to some of their highest levels on record. The optimism in positioning is not reflected in the sentiment surveys. But if the unwinding in the speculative bubble that peaked early last year gains steam, look for a lack of optimism to be replaced with outright pessimism, followed by a re-positioning of assets.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Commodities soar but struggle for attention
This All Star Charts +Plus Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of largely binary decisions and tactical calls. Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard, this piece is designed to help active asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.
In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Continuation Patterns And Primary Uptrends
As we enter the new year, let’s take a step back and discuss where we’ve come from. The following chart is an excellent illustration of the price action for risk assets in 2021. As you can see, both stocks and commodities went through a corrective phase for much of the year and remain stuck in their ranges as we head into 2022. Markets can't go sideways forever, so we expect resolutions sooner rather than later. And because the vast majority of these consolidations are simply continuation patterns within the context of primary uptrends, we’re expecting upside resolutions. The question simply remains “when?”
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
Key Takeaway: Large-caps take the 2021 crown as mid-caps & small-caps struggle to get back in gear. US strength not being echoed among global equities. Tactical risk management model gives benefit of the doubt to bulls.
Entering 2022, Real Estate, Technology, Health Care and Consumer Staples hold down the top spots in our S&P 500 sector relative strength rankings.
Our industry group-based heat map shows deteriorating conditions across Energy and Financials and improving conditions in Staples and Utilities. Leadership from defensive groups is not usually consistent with risk-on behavior.
In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
A “Santa Claus Rally” For Stocks
The last 5 trading days of the year and the first two of the new year represent a historically strong period for the market. This seasonal trend is referred to as the “Santa Claus Rally” and occurs during one of the best 7-day periods based on data all the way back to 1950. The market is off to a good start as today is the first day of this period and the S&P is already back to all-time highs for the first time since November. The main support level we have been watching in recent weeks is those September highs around 4,500. Buyers dug in and successfully defended this zone twice this month, and now they are trying to make a sustained breakout back to fresh record highs. If we hold above the November and December highs ~4,700 we’re likely to see a fresh leg higher for the broader market, and particularly US large caps.
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.