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[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

November 10, 2021
JC Parets

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: The bulls are back as more and more investors begin to reach for risk. Optimism is expanding across investor surveys and active equity managers have increased their exposure to levels not seen since the beginning of the year. This fresh bout of risk-seeking behavior comes as both momentum and price trends have turned bullish. Also, participation beneath the surface is expanding as the major indexes reach record highs. Combine this backdrop with a healthy number of stubborn bears and we have an environment that supports the next leg higher.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Appetite For Risk Returns

[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes & Breadth Trends

November 8, 2021
JC Parets

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Small-caps leading the way higher. No breadth thrusts (yet) but rally participation is improving. Looking for copper & bonds to confirm risk on messages from the equity market.

  • Energy and Information Technology are at the top of the relative strength rankings. The industry group heat map confirms this strength with Energy and Semiconductor groups (up and down the cap scale) accounting for five of the top ten spots in the industry group rankings.
  • Relative weakness can be found in Utilities, Consumer Staples and Health Care, trends that are echoed in both our sector rankings and the industry group heat map. 

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

November 8, 2021
Steve Strazza

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Breadth Confirms New Highs

Last week we covered the modest breadth expansion in US indexes. The picture was still somewhat mixed as most AD lines had not made decisive breakouts. That all changed this week. Not only did most large-cap AD lines in the US make new highs, but small and mid-cap AD lines also resolved higher. Here’s a look at the advance-decline lines for both developed and emerging markets, which are pressing up against new highs as well. This is the kind of broad confirmation from internals that bulls want to see.

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

November 8, 2021
Steve Strazza

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

November 5, 2021
JC Parets

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

We’ve been on the lookout for evidence of breadth improvement and the new high lists this week have given us plenty of it. The 63-day (3-month) new high lists for small-caps and mid-caps have heated up after being dormant for most of the summer and that is starting to stretch into new highs on a 126-day (6-month) and 252-day (1-year) basis as well. On the NASDAQ we have now seen the most 52-week highs since March. I’ll let pundits talk about the impact that a drop in bond yields might be having on this and just note that new highs expanding is one of the most bullish things we can see from the stock market. When they stop expanding and start to contract is when we start to see trouble.

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

November 3, 2021
JC Parets

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: There’s nothing more bullish than new all-time highs, and there was plenty to go around as we reviewed our monthly charts over the weekend. It’s no wonder that optimism is resurfacing as stocks indexes up and down the cap-scale push to new records. Whether current sentiment will develop into the type of risk-seeking fervor that brought us into the year is unseen. But bulls continue to rise, and interestingly so do the bears. The AAII and II bears ticked higher last week, with II bears reaching levels not seen since May of last year. The backdrop is turning to optimism, but there's still enough pessimism among investors to keep sentiment off of the risk side of the scale.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Equity Love Affair Undiminished

[PLUS] Portfolio Perspectives - Bullish Evidence calls for Deploying Cash

November 2, 2021
JC Parets

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

We’ve made some changes to our ASC+Plus Dynamic Portfolios. 

With the weight of the evidence turning more bullish, we have increased our equity exposure in the cyclical and tactical opportunity portfolios. 

Within these portfolios we have also moved away from equity areas that are struggling to participate in the rally and re-focused exposure on areas that are experiencing upside momentum.

[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes & Breadth Trends

November 1, 2021
JC Parets

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Index strength fueled by new found momentum. New highs lists are expanding, but not very rapidly. Persistent inflation, sputtering growth are a headache for the Fed.

  • Consumer Discretionary has been the top-performing large-cap sector on a short-term basis and was one of only two large-cap sectors to make new highs last week (Information Technology was the other). The sector’s relative strength at the large-cap level is not echoed among mid and small-caps, but it is still fairly broad-based (it’s equal-weight ranking matches its cap-weight ranking).
  • Energy and Financials have lagged on a short-term basis, but remain at the top of our relative strength rankings across size levels.