In bear markets you'll find that the majority of stocks are making lower lows and lower highs in price.

With basic arithmetic, we can call those downtrends.

Using that same math, in order for stocks to be in uptrends, they first need to stop making lower lows.

"They need to stop going down before they can start to go up", is how I learned it.

Going through my charts this weekend, I found this chart right here pretty interesting.

The last time Mid-caps, Small-caps and even Micro-caps made lower lows was almost 4 months ago:

A funny thing tends to happen near the end of important trends.

The journalists finally catch on.

It's never at the beginning of trends. That's not when they get excited.

It's when everyone has finally agreed that a trend is in place, which by definition, is late in the cycle.

You see, the journalist community does an amazing job of aggregating consumer & investor sentiment. I find they are the very best at this.

Stocks have been under pressure consistently since Q1 last year. That was 20 months ago.

That's precisely when the United States Dollar stopped falling and started to rise.

And this wasn't just against the Euro, which represents 58% of the Dollar Index, we saw Dollar strength across currencies from all over the world.

The US Dollar was the only safe haven asset this year. It wasn't US Treasury Bonds, it wasn't Japanese Yen and it certainly was not Gold.

The only safe haven was the US Dollar.

This is the video recording of our October 3rd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

Asset prices haven't been going up.

Not sure if you heard....

The gloom and doom on twitter over the weekend was pretty epic wasn't it?

And it's probably well-deserved.

The S&P500 just went out at new 22-month lows.

Gold investors were convinced by con artists that it was an inflation hedge, when it turned out to be the exact opposite all along - closing the month at new 2-year lows.

And of course, the greatest Ponzi ever - US Treasury Bond Market going out at the lowest levels since 2013:

You see what just a little bit of Dollar weakness does to this market?

I'm telling you. I'm not making this up.

Now here's the thing. Let's remember that extreme volatility IN BOTH DIRECTIONS is commonly found near turning points.

Last time the US Dollar Index had a single day GAIN as large as Friday's was 3/19/20.

Last time the US Dollar Index had a single day LOSS as large as Wednesday's was 3/26/20.

The Dollar Index peaked on 3/20/20. Stocks bottomed the very next trading day on 3/23/20.

Here's a look:

With Bonds getting destroyed this year, it's put pressure on growth stocks, because of their long-duration characteristics.

As rates rise, it puts a lot of pressure on growth stocks. That's why historically the more Value oriented stocks and sectors tend to outperform when rates are rising.

When rates are falling that's when growth stocks usually thrive the most.

We all know this. The data is free.

BUT, a funny thing has happened over the last few months.

With bonds continuing to collapse and breaking those summer lows, the Nasdaq has been outperforming the S&P500.

What does the stock market know that we don't?

I was in the city yesterday for a few meetings and dropped by Fox Business to have a little chat with Charles Payne.

Charles is one of the few who let me talk about whatever I want. No agenda. Just price action.

I appreciate that.

It was just a short hit. But we talked about the seasonal tailwinds for stocks, how a stronger Dollar means stocks will remain under pressure, and what Financials and Homebuilders are telling us about the market.

We covered a lot. This fun.

Here's the full clip:

The math has been simple.

When the Dollar is doing well, stocks don't.

And when the Dollar is weakening, stocks are strong.

It's been made very clear to us all.

The US Dollar is the enforcer:

This is the video recording of the September 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• What's the Bear Case?
• One of worst starts to year for 60/40 portfolio in history
• The impact of the US Dollar on Stocks
• No lows list peaked 3 months ago
• Best time to buy stocks in the 4 year cycle
• Bearish sentiment persists
• ARKK and Biotech stopped falling in May
• S&P500 stuck below resistance 4100-4200
• European Banks show relative strength
• Midstream Stocks Breaking out - the full list
• Corn, Soybeans and Wheat with huge bases
• Silver bullish divergence vs Gold
• Other Emerging Markets outpacing China
• Small-cap Industrials stocks that are breaking out
• 1-yr yield highest roc in 40 years
• The Flippening Is Real
• List of best trade ideas