Is there anything more important than the US Dollar?

They keep fighting me on it, but the market keeps proving them wrong.

It's the Dollar stupid!

In early October I was invited on to BNN Bloomberg where I was very clear in saying just how AGGRESSIVELY we wanted to be buying stocks.

See here: Buying Stocks & Fading Dollars (10-4-22)

That worked out well for us, and anyone else who was smart enough to follow along.

On Wednesday of this week I was invited back on to follow up on some of those comments.

Why was I so bullish?

Why was I ignoring all the noisemakers?

Because I'm a grown adult.

I don't need bedtime stories to go to sleep.

The Fed means nothing to my life. And it shouldn't impact yours either.

Here's what we're doing now:

We called it the trade of a generation.

And it's worked great for us.

Now we have a similar setup and I think it can work out just as well.

This is the video recording of our November 7th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

You certainly see it in life - the losers usually continue to lose. And winners win.

It's the same thing in the stock market. Winners tend to keep on winning, and the losers remain losers for a reason.

With the whole ESG scam unraveling over the past couple of years, the market has voted with their dollars.

That's what pays.

Not cute bed time stories. Actual Dollars.

Forget the narratives. I want to know what investors are ACTUALLY doing.

And as we have documented here consistently, the voting dollars are being used to buy Energy.

But I continue to be impressed with the strength in Energy stocks, despite the correction we've seen in Crude Oil Futures.

Look at that relative strength:

This is still the one folks.

I've been in the camp that we're only getting bull markets in stocks around here if the Dollar is falling.

And well, a funny thing happened last month: The Dollar started falling, particularly against the most important crosses.

This happened once the journalists finally realized the Dollar had been so strong. And you know what tends to happen when they finally get the memo ;)

Take a look at the Dollar rolling over vs both the Euro and British Pounds:

How do we know if we're in a bull market or not?

Generally speaking, more stocks are going up than going down in bull markets.

And sure, there are a lot of different ways to quantify it, but this is really the gist of it: Are more stocks going up or are more of them going down?

It really is that simple.

I'm old enough to remember when stocks would go up for multiple weeks at a time.

They used to call those uptrends where I'm from.

So how about a 3rd straight week of gains for the Dow Jones Industrial Average?

That's something you don't see every day:

One of the things that continues to really stand out to me is the relentless outperformance in Energy stocks, even in the midst of a major correction in Crude Oil.

You can see it perfectly in this chart. Energy stocks today are making new 52-week highs relative to Crude:

The bond market is the biggest and baddest market of them all.

All these crypto currencies can go to zero and no one who matters will care.

The entire pot industry can disappear tomorrow and it won't matter.

Small-cap stocks aren't relevant, from a systemic perspective.

Do you know what matters? The bond market.

And if there's real stress out there in financial markets, you are going to see it show up in bonds.

It's just math.

But a funny thing happened in Q2 this year. High Yield Credit spreads began to tighten.

If there was real stress, you would be seeing them widening.

In this chart below we're looking at lower lows in the S&P500 but higher lows in the ratio between Junk Bonds and US Treasury Bonds:

This is the video recording of the October 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• The DJ Industrial Avg at the Pre-Covid Highs
• Fewer Stocks are making New Lows
• Small-caps, Mid-caps & Micro-caps diverging positively
• Sentiment is at a historic bearish extreme
• Credit Spreads tightening the past 4 months
• Negative Correlation Between US Dollar & Stocks intact
• Consumer Discretionary outpacing Staples
• Sector Level trends are improving
• Energy making new 52-week highs relative to Stocks
• Shorting these REITs and Software Stocks
• Industrials & Regional Banks making new 52wk relative highs
• More Bullish Options Activity in Occidental Petroleum
• Coal Stocks Setting Up For Breakouts
• Industrial Stocks ready to bounce
• Financials holding Support
• Copper/Gold ratio not confirming new highs in Yields
• 5 & 10/yr Breakevens peaked quarters ago
• Emerging Markets down near critical levels
• Seasonally the best time to buy stocks
• List of my favorite stocks to buy

Friday morning I was in the city chopping it up with Maria Bartiromo.

She was surprised at what I had to say.

But I think she was intrigued.

Also, huge shoutout to Fox Business on their 15th Anniversary. It's been amazing to watch them continue to dominate financial TV.

Congrats all around.

Check out the full clip from Friday morning: