Are you watching?

Look what stocks and Crypto do with just a little tiny bit of Dollar weakness.

In fact, US Dollar Index Futures are only down 3.0% off the highs.

And look how stocks have done since the Dollar stopped going up a couple of weeks ago:

Here's your chart of the day.

How can it not be?

It's the answer to the question: "What's it going to take for Bitcoin and Crypto to start doing well again?"

You see this inverse correlation?

This to me is the big one.

The chart below is the one I'm watching the closest.

You guys have been hearing me pound the table about the US Dollar and what a hard time stocks and crypto will (continue to) have in a stronger Dollar environment.

So here you have it. This is the Emerging Markets ETF $CEW back to the same level where it bottomed out the only 2 other times it was ever down here:

I remember 2010-2011 like it was yesterday.

Precious metals were all the rage.

Silver miners were the meme stocks of their day.

There was so much money being made in Silver.

And then all that changed.

No one has heard from those silver surfers ever again.

And now here we are watching the Silver ETF $SLV close the week at its lowest price in history relative to the S&P500:

This is our ASC Research Q3 2022 Playbook.

Investors have a lot of questions right now. With sentiment and at some of the most pessimistic levels in history, what will it take for some of these trends to change in the second half of the year? I believe some major trends are already changing.

The Playbook takes a step back and looks at things from a more Structural perspective. If you're specifically looking for more tactical opportunities, you can check out this week's Live Mid-Month Conference Call.

Here's what we'll be discussing in our Q3 Playbook:

• Stocks (International & U.S.)
• U.S. Sectors & Industries
• Market Breadth & Sentiment
• Commodities
• Currencies
• Intermarket Analysis
• Cryptocurrencies
• New Trade Ideas
• Overall Strategy

This is the video recording of the July 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• 34 Straight Weeks Of More New Lows Than New Highs
• Strong Negative Correlation between Stocks & Dollars
• DJIA & DJTA holding short-term support so far
• S&P500 Remains Below overhead supply
• Small-caps & Financials testing significant support levels
• Europe's STOXX 600 back to 2000/2007 highs
• Apple hits new All-time Relative Highs
• US 10yr & 30yr Yields run into 2018 highs
• Breakevens & EW Commodities peaked months ago before Yields
• Still no expansion in the new 20 day highs or 63 highs lists
• Commercial Hedgers remain historically long Crude Oil
• Gold, Silver & Gold Miners break down to new 52-week lows
• 10yr Minus 3-mo Yield Curve breaks down to follow 2s-10s
• Bitcoin & Ethereum hold above former cycle peaks
• New Trade Ideas: Both Long & Short

Do you see what happens when the US Dollar is falling?

Stocks and Crypto go up.

This IS the catalyst.

Do you want to know what will get stocks and crypto back into bull markets?

It's not the fed, it's not the president, it certainly isn't a former president, it isn't a war or any kind of "news" event.

It's the US Dollar. Period.

Over the weekend we saw the price of Ethereum jump to new 30 day highs.

Looking a little deeper, you'll find that both Binance and Avalanche also hit new 30 day highs.

Some of you trade cryptos and others don't. But that's not really my point here.

As you've heard me say a million times by now, these crypto assets are just growth stocks (probably software stocks if you want to be more specific).

And the correlations prove it. They've never been higher, in fact.

"JC what's on your mind these days?"

I get asked this a lot. So it keeps me on my toes.

But it's a great exercise, even if you're not being asked regularly by colleagues and journalists.

So what is on my mind?

It's this.

It's still this.

It's the strong Dollar preventing stocks and crypto assets from rising in price:

You can't overstate what a bully the Dollar has been towards stocks in the U.S. and around the world.

We've talked about new 20 year lows for Japanese Yen, and the recent parity with the Euro, of course.

But now take a look the Emerging Markets Currencies ETF breaking down to new all-time lows:

In bear markets, you're going to find more stocks making new lows than new highs.

That's just basic math.

In bull markets, you'll see the opposite.

Here's what today looks like: 33 consecutive weeks of more stocks hitting new lows than new highs.