We laid it out 2 weeks ago in our June mid-month conference call.

It was time to buy bonds.

And I think this simple chart really helps illustrate why.

We're looking at the 10yr Breakevens peaking months ago, along with our Equally-weighted Commodities Index also peaking around the same time.

All of this while Rates made one more new high:

You can pretend the bond market doesn't matter all you want.

But I'm here to tell you that this $115 Trillion + market that we call "bonds" is what's moving things around here.

It starts with credit.

If there is stress in credit, then you're going to see the implications across markets.

This is the video recording of the June 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• The S&P500 and Dow Jones Composite stuck below overhead supply
• Major US Indexes are below their AVWAPs from the COVID lows
• 30 consecutive weeks of more stocks making new lows than new highs
• Seasonality could become a tailwind in July
• Sentiment is as bad for stocks as I've ever seen
• Relative strength out of Chinese Internet and other "culprits"
• Bitcoin near important support
• The US Dollar controls all of this. All eyes on DXY
• Breadth Deterioration in Commodities
• Long opportunities in Financials
• Defensive Sectors are vulnerable
• Gold is still below overhead supply
• Copper/Gold ratio breaking down pointing to lower rates
• Japanese Yen hits new multi-decade lows
• Buy the dip in bonds? I think so

Bonds form the largest money market in the world. The world of fundamental analysis has a lot of data, but when it comes to technical analysis, we narrow down the factors that matter. Basically, Interest rates are to the bond market what the price is to the stock market. This post will look into this topic and examine the present opportunities.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our June Monthly Strategy Session last Thursday night. Premium Members can click here to access the recording and the chartbook.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.

This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

This is the video recording of our June 2nd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

This is the video recording of the May 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• The average stock down 30-45% depending on the exchange
• Most consecutive weeks of more new lows than new highs since 2008
• How will US Dollar near former highs impact stocks
• Energy Stocks & Commodities at a Critical Juncture
• Major Bond Futures Contracts at Key Support: 2s, 5, 10s & 30s
• Consumer Discretionary the worst performing sector
• New Short Ideas in Growth
• Stocks Showing Relative Strength bucking the trend
• International weakness - stocks are below overhead supply
• Commercial Hedgers continue to buy Energy Futures
• Precious metals underperforming stocks and commodities
• Chilean Lithium continues to shine
• Agriculture stocks and commodities still trending higher
• A look into some recent insider transactions
• Crypto at key support levels, similar to the bond market

This is the video recording of our May 3rd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

Are you seeing this?

Inflation Protected Treasuries are outpacing nominal yielding Treasury Bonds. We're now at the highest levels since the Great Financial Crisis.

For those new to fixed income, this is the bond market expressing its thoughts about inflation.

This is our ASC Research Q2 2022 Playbook.

With the current market environment giving us many mixed messages, what better time to dive in and see what's happening underneath the surface?

• Stocks (International & U.S.)
• U.S. Sectors & Industries
• Market Breadth & Sentiment
• Commodities
• Currencies
• Intermarket Analysis
• Cryptocurrencies
• New Trade Ideas
• Overall Strategy

This is the video recording of the April 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• The Major U.S. Indexes and Current Technical Analysis
• Commodities making multi-year highs vs Stocks
• Our Sentiment Composite Indicator shows excess Pessimism
• Value Stocks continue to lead vs Growth Stocks
• Energy Stocks and Commodities Trades
• Agriculture Stocks and Commodities
• Base Metals & Precious Metals
• The US Dollar vs US Dollar Index are very different
• Global Markets: Pockets of Strength & Weakness
• Bonds Yields and Yield Curves
• What To Do With These Beat Up Growth Stocks
• Bitcoin Correlations & New Crypto Trade Ideas