Skip to main content

Displaying 49 - 60 of 342

Things Are Getting "Real"

December 10, 2022

Remember when they told you Gold was a hedge against inflation?

It wasn't.

Remember when they told you Gold was a safe haven asset?

It wasn't.

Remember all those times the Gold bugs made up fairy tales about future price appreciation for their rocks?

It never happened.

And so here we are. Well over a decade later, Gold prices are actually still down 6% from their 2011 highs. Silver is somehow still down over 50% from those highs.

Think about the opportunity cost of owning precious metals instead of pretty much anything else.

So. Is this time different?

Is this the time for Gold to finally shine?

No Stress in Credit

October 20, 2022

The bond market is the biggest and baddest market of them all.

All these crypto currencies can go to zero and no one who matters will care.

The entire pot industry can disappear tomorrow and it won't matter.

Small-cap stocks aren't relevant, from a systemic perspective.

Do you know what matters? The bond market.

And if there's real stress out there in financial markets, you are going to see it show up in bonds.

It's just math.

But a funny thing happened in Q2 this year. High Yield Credit spreads began to tighten.

If there was real stress, you would be seeing them widening.

In this chart below we're looking at lower lows in the S&P500 but higher lows in the ratio between Junk Bonds and US Treasury Bonds:

What The Heck Is Going On Here?

September 28, 2022

With Bonds getting destroyed this year, it's put pressure on growth stocks, because of their long-duration characteristics.

As rates rise, it puts a lot of pressure on growth stocks. That's why historically the more Value oriented stocks and sectors tend to outperform when rates are rising.

When rates are falling that's when growth stocks usually thrive the most.

We all know this. The data is free.

BUT, a funny thing has happened over the last few months.

With bonds continuing to collapse and breaking those summer lows, the Nasdaq has been outperforming the S&P500.

What does the stock market know that we don't?