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Most Important Chart of 2023

September 26, 2023

This has to be it right?

How is this one not the world's most important chart?

With the US 10-year Yield hitting the highest levels in 15 years, Crude Oil has caught a bid lately hitting the highest levels all year.

Do You Own Enough Energy?

July 31, 2023

The fact that Energy hasn't even broken out yet really stands out to me.

Energy, and commodities in general, have been left for dead this year.

Investors have forgotten about that third asset class: Commodities.

It's not just stocks and bonds kids.

There are Commodities too!

Here's the Energy Sector Index, flat over the past 15 years.

It still hasn't even broken out:

End of the Bond Bull? Not so fast....

July 17, 2023

It's hard for me to have a conversation about the stock market without bringing up what's happening in bonds.

Think about it like this, the market cap of all US Stocks is somewhere around $40 Trillion. For the bond market it's over $120 Trillion.

Volatility in bonds tends to trickle down to other asset classes, especially stocks.

US Stocks really got going in the 4th quarter last year, once the US 10-year Note stopped falling in price.

I don't believe that was a coincidence.

But at this point, Large Speculators have on their most aggressive short position in bonds ever.

So in other words, what is historically the "dumb money", particularly at turning points, are betting more aggressively than ever that bond prices are going to fall and rates will now continue higher: