From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Remember when anything priced in yen was trending higher?

It wasn’t too long ago that if you were looking for an uptrend, all you had to do was throw the yen in the denominator, and voila.

Just last month, the dollar hit a new 34-year high against the yen—levels not seen since the 1980s.

But the tables are turning in favor of the Japanese currency.  

While most central banks are either cutting interest rates or considering future rate cuts, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is hiking—a policy shift that puts a bid beneath the yen…

A couple of months ago, I highlighted buying yen futures above .6500.

Fast forward to today, and I’ve adjusted the entry-level to the former 2022 and 2023 lows at approximately .6625:

The shelf of...

This is where it all starts folks.

The story starts and ends with the Bond Market.

You may not like it. I know I certainly don't. But that's the world we've always lived in. And it's the world I would expect us to be in for a long long time.

The bond market is $130 Trillion. That's compared to a mere $50 Trillion US Stock Market. The total Global stock market is slightly over $100 Trillion, for perspective.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

One week, the buck is breaking down. The next, it’s ripping higher.

With commodity currencies rolling over, the dollar-yen sliding lower, and the US Dollar Index $DXY failing to hold its recent breakdown… 

What’s it going to be this week? 

So far, the Bulls are in control. 

But that could change if dollar bears violate these critical levels…

First, track the 1.0915 zone for the euro: 

A decisive break above that level will apply pressure on the buck and set an upside target of 1.1125.

Next, keep an eye on the pound.

The GBP/USD is pulling back following the completion of a six-month inverted head and shoulders pattern:

The pound’s breakout remains valid as long...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The bull market is back! 

The major indexes are hitting new all-time highs, and so is gold. 

Small-caps are ripping. Crypto is ripping. And the most heavily shorted names on the street are squeezing higher.

I’d expect the US dollar to break down as stock market bulls rush to put their greenbacks to work. 

Instead, the US Dollar Index $DXY is holding steady. Dollar-yen is refusing to roll over.

And risk-on commodity currencies – the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollars – are failing to trigger buy signals.

Stock market bulls don’t seem to care about the lack of risk-on signals from global currencies. 

As long as that’s the case...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The talking heads are forecasting choppy market conditions and a significant correction for Q3.

News flash: The market has been messy for months. And we already experienced a stealth correction beneath the surface.

I’ll keep an open mind, but if commodity currencies start breaking out…

Forget about it!

Stocks have weathered the US dollar’s recent rally. 

Imagine how they’ll perform once the dollar rolls over, especially against risk-on currencies like the New Zealand dollar.

Check out the NSD/USD pair coiling within a symmetrical triangle after retesting its 2020 low:

I’m not a fan of symmetrical triangles, as I’ve found measuring risk with diagonal boundaries far less reliable than horizontal support/...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The smart money is snatching up Canadian dollars.

Last month, commercial hedgers extended their Canadian dollar exposure to their largest net-long historical position.

While positioning represents a condition – not a signal – we can only view the hedger's appetite for the loonie in one light…

Bullish!

Notice that extended commercial long positioning (the bright blue line in the lower pane) coincides with critical inflection points:

These market turns preceded extensive rallies in 2016, 2017, and 2020.

Before boarding the loonie’s next rip-roaring rally, price must provide a well-defined entry with a favorable risk-to-reward profile.

But the past two years of sideways action look more like a topping or bearish continuation pattern, not a bullish reversal:

The bullish argument for Canadian dollar futures doesn’t improve when we slap on a...

This is the video recording of our July 1st Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

This chart really stood out to me this week.

We just saw the Australian Dollar vs the Japanese Yen close at the highest levels since 2007.

So why investors care about the Aussie/Yen cross?

Because look how it trades with commodities...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

So much for buying the Japanese yen.

Forex markets are taking a shot at the Japanese currency as the aussie, kiwi, and Canadian dollars post fresh decade highs versus the yen.

Not to be outdone, the USD/JPY pair is printing its highest daily close since April 1990!

Check out the dollar-yen’s eight-week base breakout:

The path of least resistance now points higher toward 170, but only if the USD/JPY trades above 158.

I’ve been bearish the dollar-yen pair since it peaked in April. However, as traders, we must update our prior biases based on the current data. And it doesn’t get much more bullish than a new 34-year closing high.

Today’s USD/JPY breakout not only flips my outlook for the yen. It also impacts my view of the...

This is the video recording of the June 2024 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Check out these currency headlines:

The Buck Strikes Back… 

Investors Sideline a Defiant Dollar… 

Dollar Down? The 10-Year Says “Yes!”... 

The USD Rally Proves Sticky… 

Weighing a Potential Dollar Breakdown…

Well, which is it? Is the dollar going up… or down?

I have no idea. 

But given the market's current shape, your best forex bets are to short the euro and buy the yen…

If that sounds familiar, I shared a similar perspective during last month’s Fed Day.

A month and a half later, the euro is trading at...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY is violating its year-to-date trendline.

Is this it? Will the dollar finally follow the breakdowns in crude oil and interest rates?

The forex markets say, “Not so fast…”

Following yesterday’s breakout, the British pound is slipping back into the box as the greenback digs in its heels:

Fading the failed GBP/USD breakout earlier this spring proved rewarding. If you’re feeling spicy, you can take another shot at a mean reversion toward 1.25 – but only if the pound is trading below 1.2750.

On the flip side, I like buying the GBP/USD if it reclaims 1.2775 with a target of 1.3150. This trade will only work if DXY is trending lower. 

The euro is also running into resistance – down 40 pips this morning:

...