From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

King Dollar is reclaiming its throne.

The US Dollar Index $DXY hit a new year-to-date high on Monday, punishing other global currencies.

The euro undercut its June pivot lows. The pound dropped for the fourth consecutive session. And the yen is well within reach of its lowest level since the summer of 1990.   

Other major currencies don’t stand a chance against USD strength.

If you can’t beat them, join them!

The Swiss franc might be the next to succumb to this old proverb as it prepares to bend the knee.

Check out the US dollar-Swiss franc pair pulling back after posting a new eight-year low:

The price action following those eight-year lows mirrors the failed breakdown in the dollar index – sharply higher.

But the USD/CHF has reached a logical level to pause, marked by a polarity...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Sellers beware! 

The US Dollar Index $DXY is kicking ass and taking names.

The dollar has ripped higher ever since the July failed breakdown.

It’s now challenging fresh six-month highs and a critical former resistance area. 

An upside resolution for King Dollar will undoubtedly pressure risk assets – not the ideal scenario for stock market bulls.

And the dollar rally has plenty of room to run if the DXY is a reliable indicator...

Check out the number of consecutive up-weeks in the lower pane of the US Dollar Index chart:

The DXY has finished in the green for nine consecutive weeks and counting, producing a bullish momentum thrust.

It hasn’t experienced a similar winning streak since the 2014-15...

This is the video recording of the September 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Equities like a deadstick dollar.

But stocks can’t always get what they want – or “like.” 

A swift 5 percent gain in the US Dollar Index $DXY was not on the S&P 500’s wish list.

Yet that’s what the dollar served up following its mid-July failed breakdown. 

Unsurprisingly, stocks have struggled since, peaking less than two weeks after the dollar posted its year-to-date low.

The DXY is now challenging a critical overhead supply level as dollar bulls have once again lowered their horns.

But will they finally hook 'em by the end of the week?

We’ll know if the DXY decisively closes above 105.

That’s the level:

Meanwhile, investors and traders appear reluctant to relinquish the euro (the largest component of the US Dollar Index at 57.6% of the weighting). 

Perhaps US dollar bulls are making contact at the...

How was your summer?

Ready to make some money this Fall?

Last night was our LIVE Monthly Charts Strategy Session for Premium Members of Allstarcharts.

This is where we go over everything happening in the current markets.

The chart of the S&P500 is a great representation of the circumstances right now.

Stocks are correcting and stuck in a range during a perfectly normal time to be digesting their historic gains.

This is the video recording of our September 5th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

“Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop” blared the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek less than a week after the US Dollar Index $DXY peaked last September.

Unbelievable timing.

We can’t make this stuff up!

While the DXY has undergone a significant correction since, the message is just as appropriate today as it was then.

The dollar can’t stop.

It’s ripping higher this morning, breaking to fresh six-month highs as it nears a key area of former resistance.

Those mounting breakouts and breakdowns favoring the USD from mid-August are sticking their moves. 

Have no fear, or "FOMO," if you missed any of those trades.

These next two dollar pairs offer well-defined entries using one of my favorite short-duration chart patterns…

The flag.

Before I outline the trade setups, here’s a quick reminder of what constitutes a flag or pennant (triangular version), according to Robert D. Edwards and John Magee’s classic...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

King Dollar is bouncing around as we approach Labor Day.

Last week’s strength is evaporating.

Meanwhile, global currencies claw back recent losses as cryptocurrencies and gold’s crazy cousin, silver, enjoy a much-needed boost.

It’s no secret that risk assets like a weaker dollar! 

But let’s put the current action into perspective before we get ahead of ourselves.

Remember, a single session doesn’t constitute a trend.

But it could mark a critical turning point…

The US Dollar Index $DXY violated a year-to-date downtrend line last week, breaking above its June pivot high:

And it did so while posting its first overbought reading (14-day RSI above 70) since its peak last fall.

That’s an impressive feat and a clear point for dollar bulls! 

Yet I can’t ignore the oversold momentum reading (14-day RSI below 30) that accompanied last month’s failed...

This is the video recording of the August 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar sits atop the heap.

Major global currencies, including the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Singapore dollar, are limping lower against the greenback.

The long list could grow in coming sessions as momentum builds behind a sustained USD advance.

While the evidence suggests we lean in that direction, I always prepare to take the other side of a trade if and when the data changes.

So, what’s the best way to play a falling dollar?

Before I share my favorite trade setup, let’s look at the US Dollar Index $DXY: 

DXY is finding resistance at the July pivot highs and a downtrend line originating with the March peak.

It makes sense for the dollar advance to pause at this level. And it has.

If DXY absorbs the overhead supply and rips above 1.0350...

We’re having loads of fun with What the FICC?

Spencer and I talk about high-level intermarket trends, whatever markets catch our attention, and things that fly under the average investor’s radar.

Bill Baruch, the founder and president of Blue Line Futures, will join us tomorrow to share his insights on trends and markets.

I’m a big fan of Bill’s and the entire team at Blue Line – a consistent source of clarity. And I know Spencer’s dying to discuss yields…

It’s going to be a good one! Be sure to tune in tomorrow at 11:30 a.m. ET.

If you missed yesterday’s show, here’s a quick recap…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

When it rains, it pours.

Markets chop sideways most of the time. This has been the reality for forex markets for much of the year.

But that’s starting to change as numerous US dollar pairs reach new 10-month highs. The dollar is taking down crucial levels while the US Dollar Index $DXY retests a year-to-date downtrend line and key former highs.

The peculiar coincidence sets up some potentially critical resolutions for these USD pairs.

If they fail, the dollar rally is likely over. 

If they hold and additional USD breakouts materialize, selling pressure will intensify for many risk assets.

As of today, quite a few forex pairs are on the verge of supporting a sustained US dollar rally…

Let’s start with the second largest component of the DXY (13.6%), the US dollar-Japanese yen:

The USD/JPY is completing a six-week base as it breaks to its highest level since November.