Did you see Gold just close at the highest price in history?

This is something we've never ever seen before - Gold closing out a week above $2300/oz.

It's the highest valuation for Gold in its entire history.

This is what that looks like:

This is the video recording of our April 1st Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Last week’s tactical setups are heading toward our targets as G10 currencies lose ground against a rising dollar.

If you let the pound or kiwi trade pass, fear not.

The US dollar/Canadian dollar pair is entering our wheelhouse…

Check out the greenback-loonie challenging a key retracement and former resistance level at approximately 1.36:

I placed a stop order above last Friday’s high of 1.3606. 

That was the highest weekly close for the US Dollar Index since early November.

The trend has been higher for the US Dollar throughout the entire 1st quarter of 2024.

Remember, the Dollar bottomed towards the end of December in 2023.

So how much higher can the Dollar go?

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Currency markets refuse to choose a direction.

Up, down, or sideways: None appeal to the major US dollar pairs.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index $DXY is catching toward the upper bounds of its yearlong range.

If the dollar continues to rise, these swing trades will break for our targets…

I was monitoring the British pound for a breakdown below the December 2023 lows at approximately 1.25:

Instead of resolving lower, the GBP/USD took the opposite route, breaking above the December 2023 highs.

But those new highs were short-lived as the pound slipped back into its prior range. (Talk about indecisive!)

This is the video recording of the March 2024 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is outshining the dollar.

The greenback doesn’t know which way to go, as FX markets offer traders little in the way of breakouts.

Instead of reviewing the chopfest, playing devil’s advocate, and weighing the lack of evidence for a near-term directional bias, let’s turn to a trending market for insight into the dollar.

Spoiler alert: It’s shiny, yellow, and trading at new all-time highs.

Yes, I’m referring to Gold.

Gold and the US dollar hold a classic intermarket relationship — an overt negative correlation. 

As I reviewed the charts this weekend, another pattern emerged between the two. 

I decided to offset Gold ahead of the dollar by roughly two to four years. After adjusting the charts, I landed on setting Gold forward by 130 weeks (approximately two-and-a-half years).

And voila:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Stocks only go up.

Bitcoin is screaming its way back to the former all-time highs. Crude is printing multi-month highs. Even gold is breaking out to new all-time highs after going nowhere for years.

We’re entering the Davey Day Trader part of the cycle — green hammer and all.

Everything is trending higher. Everything except the dollar, that is…

The US Dollar Index $DXY is trading smack dab in the middle of last year’s October-to-December decline:

DXY rebounded to start the year only to find resistance at a critical retracement level.

This is the video recording of our March 4th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What started out as a bearish reversal in the dollar-yen is beginning to look more like a bullish continuation pattern.

Buying the Japanese yen will produce absolute gangbuster returns – at some point. 

But the market’s simply not there yet…

For starters, Japanese stocks are hitting new all-time highs. These new highs support bullish USD/JPY positioning – long dollar, short yen.

Here’s an overlay chart of the Nikkei 225 Index and the dollar-yen pair, highlighting their positive correlation over longer time frames:

The USD/JPY tends to peak and trough in tandem with the Nikkei. 

This is the video recording of the February 2024 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Commodity currencies are edging higher.

But given the preceding dollar rally, significant breakout levels lie well out of reach.

In the meantime, we can turn to the yen for actionable ideas.

One yen cross is already breaking out!

Check out the aussie-yen cross challenging multi-year resistance at approximately 98.50:

That’s a tradeable level marked by the 2022 high and the June and September peaks from last year.

Buyers are on the verge of cracking this key level as I write. If and when they do, I like it long with a target of 111.15 over longer time frames.