From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
It’s been a routine hurricane season down here so far this year. Things have picked up lately, and we’ve had a few close calls over the past week.
But storms aren’t just brewing in the Atlantic...
It’s also beginning to look dicey in the commodities market, with lots of “close calls” these days.
Strong headwinds such as the rising dollar have hit some of the most important procyclical assets this week. Apparently, there’s some geopolitical stuff going on, too. Then again, when isn’t there?
Let’s discuss what we’re seeing and try to determine just how likely these winds could evolve into a major storm for commodities.
Energy, base metals, precious metals, and ags have either pulled back from recent highs or have broken critical levels of support.
Given that many areas have experienced near parabolic advances during the past year, a corrective phase would be a healthy and welcome development. It makes total sense for commodities to digest their monster gains at current levels. And remember, sideways is always an option.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Rotation is the lifeblood of any bull market.
If a sustained uptrend is going to persist, then we need to have broadening participation... or at least some healthy rotation.
And that’s exactly what we're seeing within commodities right now.
As the energy group chops sideways and base metals hang tough, we’re starting to see signs of strength from one of the worst-performing areas over the past year.
Softs.
Like livestock last week, it appears this group of commodities are ready to play catch-up as they turn the corner and head higher.
Considering the fact that other groups are simply consolidating or correcting through time instead of price, we'd argue that this looks more like an expansion in participation rather than rotation. But it's really just semantics. It's all bullish at the end of the day. Let's dive in.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
We can’t ignore the resiliency in base metals.
Despite the classic year-two chop, base metals have remained buoyant while many other risk assets have come under pressure. They’ve even gained ground during the recent bout of US dollar strength.
And now we’re beginning to see signs of serious leadership emerge as Crude Oil consolidates its recent gains. The broad-based strength beneath the surface for this procyclical group of commodities has been undeniable. These risk-on metals have been the steadiest performers within the entire asset class for the better part of this year.
In fact, much of the sideways chop in commodities is taking place at logical levels of resistance. And aside from the dramatic sell-off in lumber, we see more upside resolutions than violations of critical support levels.
We recently pointed out that base metals managed to hang tough in the face of a significant correction in copper. And this week, tin is breaking out to new all-time highs.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Overhead supply is a theme we're seeing all over these days. And this isn't just true for the stock market, but it's also dominating the commodity landscape.
Crude Oil reached our objective of 76 and turned lower. Copper remains stuck below its former 2011 highs. And Gold has been an absolute mess since peaking last August.
Even the few commodities that have recently broken above resistance zones -- such as Gasoline and Heating Oil -- have yet to follow through and confirm their new highs in any meaningful way.
Remember, commodities have enjoyed some explosive moves over the past year. Now, many are at logical levels to pause and digest recent gains. This is healthy stuff. Normal market behavior.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Crude Oil has been the Lone Ranger within the energy complex since early June, relentlessly pushing to new highs while other energy-related commodities have been stuck below overhead supply.
But that’s all changing this week as Heating Oil and Gasoline just broke above key resistance levels to new multi-year highs.
The recent strength from Energy also comes as Base Metals continue to cool off and correct. Copper, Tin, and Aluminum are all rangebound below logical levels of resistance after explosive moves off their 2020 lows. This is yet further evidence of the bifurcated market environment we're in right now. All we can do is focus on finding opportunities in areas that are trending... So, let's talk more about Energy.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Whether you trade commodities or not, it’s been impossible to ignore the recent sell-off in Lumber, as prices have collapsed almost 30% in just the last month.
Well, let’s just say we got a lot more than that! Sometimes markets correct or consolidate through time, and sometimes they correct through price.
And Lumber is most definitely correcting through price!
But Lumber is not the only procyclical commodity to enter a corrective phase. More recently, DR. Copper has begun to digest its recent gains through price as well.
These corrections have already done some damage to the primary uptrends at play as both of these economically sensitive commodities have recently violated critical support levels.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Softs are an area of the commodity space that hasn’t received much attention over the past several months, and for good reason.
As the rest of the commodities complex has been on fire, the action from this group has been muted as they’ve underperformed their peers significantly since last year.
Besides Sugar reaching our initial objective last month and Coffee breaking out of a 4-year bottom, Softs have been a real snooze fest.
Cotton continues to chop within a broad range. Cocoa is well below overhead supply. And OJ grinds sideways as it builds a 3-year base.
But it looks like Orange Juice futures are poised to break free to the upside.
Let’s take a closer look at this favorable risk/reward opportunity in OJ and lay out a potential trade setup to get long this base breakout, if and when it comes...
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
As May just came to a close, many spent the weekend celebrating the kick-off to the Summer season at Memorial day barbeques. We did that too. BUT... being the nerds we are, we also spent much of the weekend pouring over some fresh monthly candles now that yet another one is in the books.
We only get this incredibly valuable information ONCE a month. That's right. Just TWELVE times a year. As such, we really cherish weeks like these.
So, let's dive right in and talk about one of the charts that really stuck out this month: None other than the good old Thomson Reuters $CRB Index, arguably the broadest barometer for the asset class as a whole.
