From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Cyclical stocks are all the craze.

If you're doing well this year, it's because you own these stocks. If you're not, it's because you don't own these stocks.

Whether we're talking about energy, agricultural inputs, or industrial metals, these are the kinds of industry groups that are showing relative strength.

And, to be clear, this is nothing new. This theme has been in place for over a year now.

The only new development is that we're seeing upside momentum in these names pick up. As a result, the gap between these winners and the rest of the market has widened to historic levels.

The reason why many of these groups are working is simple. They make their money by selling various commodities, and the prices of those commodities continue to rise at an extraordinary pace.

As such, these "value stocks" are now growing their earnings and revenue at levels that make SAAS companies wish they were in the commodity business.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley 

Gold looks like it’s ready to run.

The largest gold miner in the world, Newmont Mining Corp. $NEM, has broken out of a multi-year base.

Silver and platinum have dug in at critical support levels and are catching higher.

And, most importantly, gold is in the process of reclaiming its former all-time highs from summer 2020.

These are all bullish developments, suggesting gold -- and precious metals more broadly -- are ready to join in on the party that most commodities have been enjoying for more than a year.

Last month, gold broke above its former 2011 highs near 1,924. Here’s a zoomed-out view of the chart:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Commodities have been on a tear, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index recently posting its best week since 1970 and the CRB Index rallying more than 25% year to date.

Despite the broad strength from commodities, Dr. Copper – a key economic barometer – has yet to break out like so many of its peers. 

After making a new all-time high last Friday, buyers were unable to sustain the move, and price retreated into its former range.

While it’s great to see so many other contracts trending higher, bulls really need to see copper join the mix. If this is truly a new commodity supercycle, it better break out from this consolidation. 

It is that important to the overall asset class.

Let’s break down the various technical scenarios for copper’s recent move and discuss what they mean for the entire space.

First, the move could have been a premature breakout:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Commodities are having their best week since 1970. And if you don't know what happened after that, let's just say it was a good decade for them as a group.

The CRB Index is up more than 13%. Crude oil is trading above 100. Wheat futures opened limit up last night, “dotting the chart.” Base metals such as aluminum and tin continue to print all-time highs.

And even precious metals have joined the party! 

Could it get any more bullish?

As it turns out, it can…

After almost a year of sideways action, Dr. Copper looks ready for a fresh leg higher, as it just closed the week at new all-time highs!

Here's a close-up look at the continuation pattern copper has been consolidating in since May of last year:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley    

Commodities have been on a tear to start the year.

The CRB Index is up almost 16% year to ate, while our equal-weight commodity index is up 9.5%.

But, with such explosive moves over the past few months, we think it might be time for some corrective action.

Our commodity indexes and a handful of individual contracts are now testing potential resistance levels.

Though we still think this bull market has plenty left in the tank, it’s starting to look like commodities are due for a break over the short term.

Let’s discuss some of these charts now.

First up is the CRB Index:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Gold is the hot topic this week, now that it’s finally showing signs of life.

It’s impossible to deny gold’s near-term strength. But we think the setup probably needs more time to develop and work through all the overhead supply from the past few years.

Long story short, gold is still pretty messy if it's below the 2011 highs.

If and when the shiny metal makes a decisive resolution, there should be plenty of time to join in and ride the trend higher.

As for other areas within commodities, we continue to see a growing list of contracts reclaim key levels and print fresh highs.

Procyclical commodities like crude oil and gasoline might come to mind since they’re constantly in the news cycle.

But other areas, such as grains and even livestock, are also breaking to new multi-year highs.

Today, we’re going to highlight an agricultural commodity that often gets overlooked.    

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

It’s only six weeks into the new year and we’re already getting a sense that commodities could very well outperform just as they did in 2021.

Evidence supporting our commodity supercycle thesis continues to mount each day, as participation across the commodity space expands.

Crude oil is breaking above 90. Base metals like aluminum and tin are hitting new all-time highs. And the rally in grains is getting back on track.

All these things suggest that last year's bull run wasn’t a simple “one and done” event.

One key difference between last year and today is strength among commodities is starting to spill over into commodity-related equities.

This is a critical development that supports our bullish thesis. 

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

Commodities are on fire!

Crude oil is trading above 90, its derivatives are printing fresh highs, and natural gas is beginning to rip – again.

But, as we’ve pointed out in recent posts, it’s not just energy that’s working. We’re seeing broad strength in commodity markets.

Soybean oil is marching higher along with the rest of the bean complex, and corn hit our initial upside objective earlier this week. 

Today, we’re going to outline another ag contract that’s setting up for its next leg higher: coffee.

Here’s a zoomed-out daily continuation chart of Coffee Futures $KCF:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

If you’re searching for strength, look no further than commodities!

With risk assets coming under increasing pressure, the strength from commodities and commodity-related stocks stands out that much more. Except for rates, it’s the only thing the bulls have left.

When we look beneath the surface, so far, the story centers around energy – whether we’re talking about crude oil printing fresh seven-year highs or Chevron Corp. $CVX breaking out of a multi-year base to new all-time highs.

Energy is -- and has been --  re-asserting itself as the next dominant leadership group. 

But unlike the stock market -- where energy is the only group working -- we’re seeing broad participation within the commodities market.

In fact, there are still plenty of pockets of strength we want to be buying.

Today, we’re going to highlight one of those areas by outlining a trade setup in soybean oil.

Let’s dive in!

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The bull market for commodities is alive and well. They were the top-performing asset class last year, and they’re kicking off the new year with a lead once again. 

The energy-heavy CRB Index is printing new seven-year highs, and our ASC Equal-Weight Commodity Index just resolved from a nine-month base to its highest level since 2013.

To take advantage of this area of leadership, we’ve been highlighting strength and outlining long ideas in a variety of commodity markets.

We know not everyone has access to the futures markets, and that’s OK, because there are plenty of opportunities to express a bullish thesis on commodities through the equity market.

To make this easier, we’ve put together a universe of stocks that offer investors exposure to a wide array of different commodities.

Let’s dive in and talk about some of them.

Here’s our Natural Resource Stocks table:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Commodities are making a fresh leg higher, and energy is leading the way.

Crude oil is back above our risk level around 76. And the energy-heavy CRB Index is at its highest level in more than seven years.

But it’s not just energy contracts that are working right now. We’re seeing strength across all areas of the commodity complex.

This broadening participation is evident in our equal-weight commodity index, which just hit new highs after consolidating for the past two quarters.

This chart shows the CRB Index and our equal-weight index side by side:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Crude oil bulls are back in town!

They kicked the year off by pushing price back above 76 and reclaiming the upper bounds of a multi-year base. Oil is the most important commodity in the world, so it’s hard to overstate just how bullish fresh seven-year highs would be. 

But we’re not quite there yet. We still need to take out the fall highs. 

The 76 level marks the former 2018 highs and the breakout from a massive reversal pattern. Buyers ran into an overwhelming amount of supply here during the back half of 2021. When they did manage to reclaim those former highs, it was short-lived, and the move quickly failed. 

But the move was more of a false start than a failed breakout. We’re back above this level again today.

Now that the bulls are back in the driver’s seat, can we expect to finally see crude oil at 100 in the coming weeks or months?

It’s very possible -- especially given one key development in recent weeks…